I think a lot of traders have under-estimated the benefit of trading for IPD's, especially now they have been doubled. If you throw in a ‘kind of' tiered-PB element with Team Of The Month Dividends, then you can actually increase your Dividend Yields on a number of players.
My own personal strategy, is slightly different between leagues, but ultimately, with the 5-sub rule across Europe, bar the English Premier League, it's well worth looking at average gametime, this season, especially when compared to previous seasons, to see which players may be either being subbed off when games are already in the bag, or rotated due to fixture build-up. My first rule though, is to never buy a player, SOLELY for IPD's unless there is another reason to like him, TOTM, PB, likely future transfer target, or media friendly players, preferably when they put in a good performance on the pitch, which is where looking at media won per matchday is a good measurement, while considering future media monitor changes. For example, in my last post I highlighted how Neymar may lose out on his one word advantage, while big players often mentioned by surname only in headlines, like Messi and Ronaldo will be huge beneficiaries of media monitor changes, whenever they may be happening! TOTM is always worth analysing, not just for the consistent winners, but those that are getting consistently close. FI are a bit shoddy with the updates on this, fortunately @ElkHunter78 (Fresh Milk) on Twitter produces excellent tables, updated quickly and showing future fixtures and points required to ‘get in the money' – an essential follow.
First thing I do is filter all the Top-10 PB players by highest 3 PB Scores achieved so far this season. This shows me guys that are producing on pitch. I'll then sort by a minimum average gametime of 70 mins or more and make sure they have all had at least 3 games already this season. I'll then start filtering by each position and then look at their PEGY figures. So here is a shortlist for IPD's who also have some other benefit, consistent PB, TOTM, media or PB potential. I also tend to focus on the top-tier teams in each league and even better, if they are already in strong positions in the Champions or Europa Leagues. I'll then look at things like fixture difficulty, although I'm not sure there is such a thing anymore, given what we have seen so far this season and most fixture ratings for teams, don't account for missing key players in either team. However, give @divvyrascal a follow on Twitter, he has done some awesome work on club positional baseline averages, and @MozzFI who also does excellent tables for fixture difficulty.
Firstly a reminder of the phases I am using to analyse PEGY for both PB and IPD. This post will just focus on Goalkeepers and Centre Backs, I'll do a further one for Full Backs, Midfielders (central/defence and attacking) and Forwards. It might take a while though so bear with me.
Phase 1 – 9/8/2019 – 25/11/2019 (108 days)
Phase 2 – 26/11/2019 – 13/3/2020 (108 days) (Covid)
Phase 3 – 16/5/2020 – 23/08/2020 (99 days) (Post Covid – End of Season)
Phase 4 – 24/8/2020 – Current (64 Days, will reach 99 days on 1/12/2020)
There was a mad rush for Goalkeepers when it was announced they were going to get their own Dividend payment. I mainly bought lots of Neuer, and took profits, probably prematurely, just recycling for IPD's. So far he has returned me £2.40 in Divs and I'm 60% up with around 50 shares. I probably took profits prematurely, but this was part of my strategy pre, and post-offers, to reduce my holdings in a lot of players and leave up some offers to take some profits when they start hitting price targets (not peaks) and building a cash balance for players I wanted to focus more shares in.
RAFAL GIKIEWICZ – Augsburg (Bundesliga)
I have him ranked 7th best in Top-3 Highest PB this season and he has been consistent with his Divs, 3p in Phase 1, 3p in Phase 2, 3p in Phase 3 and, so far, 4p Divs in Phase 4 with 2 months of that phase remaining. Overall, he has 10% EGR from Phase 1 to Phase 4, but I prefer to look at it, that he already has 33% EGR between Phase 3 and Phase 4, giving him a PEGY of 0.05. A buy price of 42p and sell of 24p gives room for some cheeky bids, once fixtures are a little more favourable. However, sometimes a reverse fixture strategy can pay off, for PB, if a good goalkeeper is tested often in a game and has a masterclass, either way, you need to look for 30-day window where a couple or more clean sheets can be found. However, good figures are often not enough, Augsburg flirted with relegation last season, lost their last 2 and don't have European competitions – this shows you need at least another reason to be picking up a player, especially a 31yo goalkeeper for a below-par Bundesliga team. Keep an eye on his numbers and if the team have a fair range of fixtures, but exiting could be trickier.
JAN OBLAK – Atletico (La Liga)
For me, La Liga is one of the most boring leagues to watch, so I'm a little more keen on defence over there, bar a few exceptions. The Slovenian International, has actually kept 6 clean sheets in his last 8 outings, including friendlies and Nations League games, only conceding in two Champions League games against Bayern and RB. I've read some very good reports, from well respected analysis sites, about Oblak and I'm happy to include him. He has already won PB this season, ranks 9th on Top 3 PB Scores this season for Keepers and has earned 9p, 6p, 6p and 8p through all 4 phases, and I imagine will increase that Phase 4 figure with 2 months of fixtures left. So between Phase 3 and 4 he has a 33% EGR and a low PEGY of 0.26. Much will depend on how well they do in the Champions League. They are unbeaten in La Liga, sit in 6th and were 3rd last season so I'd assume they may at least maintain that form. Looks a good buy/bid within the 94p – £1.05 range. They have a good range of 6 fixtures, with 4 Gold Days in the next 29 days, with a couple of 1.25 multipliers, so he has TOTM potential for November.
MANUEL NEUER Bayern (Bundesliga)
After another clean sheet in the Champions League, and being ahead on TOTM, Neuer is showing what a solid buy he is, especially due to his consistency and ability to win PB in a dominant and fairly solid defensive Bayern team. He has 6p, 8p, 8p and 8p across all 4 phases and with 2 months of football left, he will surely improve upon that 8p, especially with their fixture run and 2 games with the 1.25 multiplier, making him even more attractive for TOTM again in November. He has 15% EGR between Phase 3 and Phase 4 so far, giving him a PEGY of 0.20 so looks a rock-solid buy. The fact these guys look such good value right now, with Dividends as they are, and with 2 months left in Phase 4, is quite incredible.
DEFENDERS – CENTRE BACKS
There are very few Centre Backs I want to hold, such is the strength I feel of Full Backs, or even more attacking defenders, in terms of challenging for PB.
DAMIEN DA SILVA Rennes (Ligue 1)
Rennes are in the Champions League but face Chelsea in their next 2 as well as a matchup with PSG at some point, but they do have Brest. They have lost 2 and drawn 2 from their last 4 though. Da Silva has still posted some pretty good IPD figures, 1p, 2p, 2p and 4p, but he is 32yo and that has to be a big drawback in getting involved, as you could be stuck holding him. Again, these things have to be considered but if they get a good run of fixtures and exit looks easier, could be worth a punt if Rennes qualify from CL Group stages but not for me with a 15p Sell and 32p Buy Price.
SERGIO RAMOS Real Madrid (La Liga)
PB Wise, Ramos is a machine, for PB and IPD's, especially as he is on penalties for Real Madrid. They have a pretty good fixture run, starting with Huesca who are 0/7 this season. Not only does Ramos have PB Divs of 4p, 8p, 24, and 14p in the last 4 phases, giving him PB PEGS of betwen 0.02 and 0.03, depending on which timeframe you look at, but he also has 8p, 6p, 12p and 8p in IPD Divs through each of the 5 phases, with a few months to go and CL multipliers for TOTM in November. If we look at Phase 2 to Phase 3, he has a 100% EGR with a PEG of 0.06 and he is on track to improve on that 12p in IPD's, but will need to, and worth remembering he is 34yo so timing of exit could be crucial.
MARQUINHOS PSG (Ligue 1)
Is 3rd on Top 3 Highest PB scores amongst centre backs. He also has won 33p in PB Divs across all 4 Phases, with the best PEGY of 0.07 being between Phase 1 and Phase 3. However, as PSG have struggled a little, so has his PB with 4p in Divs in this Phase 4, compared to 16p in Phase 2 and 10p in Phase 3. He is also another who could struggle for more gametime with such packed fixtures, and including Brazilian World Cup qualifying pressures. He did have Coronavirus at the start of September though, so may be taking some time to recover from that and International Qualifiers/travel etc. I'm happy to sit and watch until I see a bit more stability or calmer fixtures ahead. Since he has returned, they have kept a couple of clean sheets, so his figures are probably improving – a watching brief and they still have some work to do in the Champions League to ensure progression.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK Liverpool (Premier League)
Currently on the sidelines for a while, but he is picking up a lot of media still, and I'm not sure how sustainable that is in the short-term. He hasn't won PB in any of the last 2 phases, and is another who has struggled as Liverpool defence has a little bit in general. He was starting to look interesting for IPD's with 4p an improvement on his Phase 3 2p, but that's unlikely to improve his 0.09 PEGY, with time out. He has won 32p in MB Divs through all 4 phases, with the 20p in Phase 4 being double the 10p in Phase 3, so an EGR of 100% and MB PEGY of 0.09. The only question is whether that can improve, or be maintained and I remain unconvinced. However, when it looks like he is set to return, and if Liverpool are looking better defensively, he could be a player to be interested in from an IPD, PB and possible MB perspective if the media kicks up a notch ahead of his return. Hard to see too much upside though, he is 29 and at a key, previous strong support level of £1.50, so lets see what happens if his media dries up first!
MATS HUMMELS Dortmund (Bundesliga)
Has kept 4 clean sheets from 5 games in the Bundesliga and 1/2 in the Champions League so far and tends to play 90 minutes. He is a 31yo but Centre Backs in particular, can keep their peak age for longer than most other positions, bar Goalkeeper and so I think he looks interesting. They have fairly easy fixtures with 2 against Brugge in the Champions League multipliers and apart from Bayern in the Bundesliga, have a relatively good run of fixtures. He is ranked 8th best Centre Back in terms of Top-3 Highest PB, totalling 481, perhaps more after the CL game. Either way he has 1p, 4p, 0p, and 4p with a few months left in Phase 4, so between Phase 1 and Phase 4, he has a 14% EGR and 0.10 PEGY. I can see that improving and he has TOTM potential too. Bids between 51p and 66p could be rewarded.
That's about all the Goalkeepers and Centre Backs that have decent PEGY figures and regular gametime that I could find, more will reveal themselves over the next few months, and it's always worth paying attention to players, especially after big PB Wins.