We saw how useful this analysis can be after my blog post on Centre Backs yesterday. Pretty much straight away when Dortmund Centre Back Mats Hummels grabbed 2 goals yesterday, taking him to 12p in IPD Divs in Phase 4. He jumped 27% in price over 24 hours and his long-term PEGY reduced from 0.15 to 0.04 with a 128% EGR between Phase 1 and Phase 4. He was very unlucky to just miss out on Star Player, but I think has grabbed some TOTM Dividends also. This shows how valuable this information can be, especially when timed with favourable fixtures and focusing on IPD, rather than the more commonly used PB analysis, as one can often lead to the other.
Firstly, a reminder of the different Phases I am looking at here for IPD's, the data is a week out of date, so some players may appear on here as better, or worse, value next week.
Phase 1 – 9/8/2019 – 25/11/2019 (108 days)
Phase 2 – 26/11/2019 – 13/3/2020 (108 days) (Covid)
Phase 3 – 16/5/2020 – 23/08/2020 (99 days) (Post Covid – End of Season)
Phase 4 – 24/8/2020 – Current (69 Days, will reach 99 days on 1/12/2020)
FULL BACKS & OTHER DEFENDERS
I've included ‘other defenders' as I use the excellent data source Football Index Edge for all my stats analysis, there is also an option to download data into Excel. There are some ‘secondary classifications' for defenders on there who can appear as defensive midfielder/wingback, central midfielders, attacking midfielder/wingers and obviously Full Backs. We have to be wary that any of those listed with ‘midfielder' could possibly get a position change, sometimes it is best to prepare for that when digging deeper.
JESUS NAVAS Sevilla (La Liga)
Jesus Navas is one such player listed as an Attacking Midfielder/Winger in Edge but he comes out high in a lot of areas. For Top-3 Highest PB's this season, for that secondary classification, he actually comes out 1st, both this season (515 PB) and last season (617 PB). He actually has some PB PEGS around 0.02 and 0.01, with 47p in PB Divs between all 4 phases. He is a little down on Phase 4 from the 32p he scooped up in IPD's in Phase 3 but he averaged 88 mins across 44 games last season and has averaged 90 minutes over 7 games so far, so looks like one of the last to be considered as a sub in games. He is 34yo but is pretty evergreen, fit and in the Spain national squad. He fits the ‘hybrid' for me to be consistently competing for PB, IPD and TOTM Divs (think he was just outside the Top-10 in October), so I'm happy to hold, especially with their solid start in the Champions League. They have had a slow start in La Liga, losing their last 4, but may have taken time to recover from their Europa League win and they finished 4th in La Liga last season. At around 69p with a sell price of 61p, he looks pretty good value.
TIMOTHY CASTAGNE Leicester (Premier League)
Would not have been my first choice, but the young Belgian International has impressed me. He started off the season with a goal and a few assists, things have been a little dry lately, but they are doing well in the Europa League and he has been busy on duty with Belgium in the Nations League. So, there are a few decent things going for Castagne and Leicester have some favourable fixtures coming up over the next month, including a couple of 1.25 multipliers, so I'd be looking for him to earn some IPD's and perhaps TOTM. He is also getting around 88 minutes average gametime. His IPD's through all 4 phases have been, 2p, 3p, 1p and 8p, with 60 odd days left of Phase 4. He has a 58% EGR between Phase 1 and Phase 4 and a 700% EGR between Phase 3 and 4, giving him a long-term PEGY of 0.10 and a short-term of 0.01, so looks excellent value between 80p and £1.05.
MARCEL HALSTENBERG RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
Another team that has European football, is a German International and a consistent player. So far he has 6p, 2p, 1p and 6p in IPD's across all 4 phases, so ranges from 0.02 to 0.71 for PEGY, so nothing spectacular but he challenged for Top-5 in TOTM, the 5-0 thumping by Man United didn't help him, but they have been doing well in the Bundesliga, sitting in 3rd currently, where they finished last season, and despite losing Timo Werner, they can still rack up some points, although I'd like to see a slightly easier fixture schedule for them.
THEO HERNANDEZ Milan (Serie A)
The 23yo Has not only racked up 30p in PB Divs across the last 4 Phases, but for IPD's he has 23p in Divs, 5p, 7p, 3p and 8p so far in Phase 4, gives him a PEGY of 0.47, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 17% and in the last 2 Phases, he has a 167% earnings growth rate and 0.07 PEGY, with still 60 days to go in Phase 4, so you can see the potential for that to improve. He was an unused substitute in Milan's last game in Europe, but they had that game wrapped up pretty early, so he was probably being rested for their next Europa League game against Lille. We will see if he gets a start this morning, in the early kick-off against Udinese but fixtures and Europa League multipliers could give him a chance of Top Defender for TOTM in October and to challenge for PB and IPD's. My only worry is him being snubbed for the French squad, who seem to have a knack of ignoring some of their better players. I'm sure if his form continues, they can't possibly ignore him for the Euro's, but it should not be expected. Milan are top of Serie-A and finished the season strong last year. I think they can challenge for the title, with Inter and Juventus, who I think both have their challenges. Would not be surprising to see the likes of Napoli and Atalanta being bang there at the end as well.
ANDREW ROBERTSON Liverpool (Premier League)
We always have to balance out recency bias, with an actual change to the way a team plays, or a player is progressing. There have been massive discussions on the timeline about Robertson v Trent – some of it has been pretty vitriol, with supporters, or critics, from both camps arguing their case or over-reacting to short-term scores etc. I enjoy healthy debate and constructive feedback, but there are so many trolls on Twitter that it's best to just block or mute the ones that are just really destructive and annoying and continue to follow those who actually put up less reactive, and more well thought-out discussions – sadly there are a lot of people struggling with their mental health at the moment, some of that is feeding through into Twitter – always remember the person on the other side is a human being.
So Andrew Robertson, is first of all one player who will benefit from media monitor changes, with most publications calling him Andy Robertson, so you would like to thing the ‘nickname' fix will see him pick up a bit more media. He has won 30p in PB Divs alone during the last 2 phases, but this is an IPD analysis, and again, it can lead to PB but it's not the primary focus but he does have a PB PEGY of 0.07. For IPD's, he has 5p, 7p, 3p and 8p. So his long-term EGR is just 17%, giving him a PEGY of 0.47, but his last 2 Phase EGR is 167%, giving him a PEGY of 0.07, the same as his PB PEG. Now may not be the best time, Liverpool have defenders out injured, have a few tough games against Atalanta and Man City, before things quieten down a bit.
What of Trent Alexander-Arnold. Well, there was some writing on the wall, with regards to his price chart, and it was notable in each phase also. For PB he won 24p, 23p, 0p and currently 8p. For IPD's he has 6p, 11p, 5p and 4p currently, so there is no real EGR between phases to compile a PEGY figure for him. It's worth a watching brief still with Trent, until fixtures calm down a bit and the defence is a bit stronger and settled as clean sheets may become hard to come by for them.
AARON CRESSWELL West Ham (Premier League)
Cresswell is a full back of note, but it is West Ham. However, they have started better than most and he is interesting if you play FPL. He has won 2p in PB in Phase 3 but 14p in Phase 4 so far, giving a 600% EGR and PEGY of 0.00. It could be recency bias but his IPD PEGY site as 0.07 over the longer term and 0.03 over the short-term with Divs of 4p, 2p, 0p and 6p currently with 2 months left. They have some fairly easy fixtures coming up, but only 3 of them, with 2 of them Gold Days, so TOTM doesn't appeal.
STEFAN LAINER – Borussia Munch (Bundesliga)
Austrian International and Borussia Munch are 4th in the Bundesliga (where they finished last season) and holding their own in the Champions League at the moment. They have a fairly easy run of fixtures coming up and with 5 fixtures (3 Gold and 2 Silver), I like the look of Lainer. He has 3p, 2p, 0p, 4p which gives him a PEGY of 0.16 between Phase 1 and 4, but a 0.08 between Phase 2 and 4. With 60 days left of Phase 4 and some favourable match-ups Lainer could be well placed to rack up some more IPD's, with an average gametime of over 87 mins from 6 games.
LEO DUBOIS – Lyon (Ligue 1)
Final one to keep an eye on. Already won 6p in PB this season and for IPD's he has 2p, 0p, 0p, 4p. That's a long-term EGR of 26% with a PEGY of 0.35 – nothing spectacular, but worth keeping an eye on with good fixtures, despite the fact they are not in Europe.
I'll follow up with some more Full Backs to keep an eye on in the next post.
BEN CHILWELL – Chelsea (Premier League)
Apart from Spurs at the end of November, Chelsea have a fairly good run of fixtures including a couple of Champions League multipliers. They are 4th in the Premier League after a shaky start, appear to be shoring up their defence with a decent keeper at last, and their strikers are beginning to find their groove. Chilwell appears to be on corners and has so far done really well. For PB he has 13p, 0p, 0p and 14p so far in Phase 4. That only gives him a long term PEGY for PB of 2.5% and a PEGY of 0.78, but that must improve over the next 60 days surely. For IPD's he has 5p, 2p, 2p and 8p so far, giving a long-term PEGY for IPD's of 17% and 0.67 PEGY but between Phase 3 and 4 he has 300% EGR for a PEGY of 0.05 – with those fixtures and Chelsea forwards finding their form, I can see him improve on those numbers.
Finally, as an addendum I thought I would add that all the players above are averaging 70 mins+ per game with a minimum of 3 games played this season and from the top-20 or so in their sub-position.
However, it's probably worth looking at players between 60 and 69 minutes, especially those new signings who may have recently joined their new clubs, or may have been recovering from injury/covid, as their gametime increases. These are the interesting ones from that list.
ACHRAF HAKIMI – Inter (Serie A)
Has already won 19p in PB Divs over all 4 phases but his IPD stats are equally impressive. 15p, 9p, 2p and 8p so far in Phase 4. A dip is understandable given his move from Dortmund to Inter and also being out for a few weeks with Covid. A 300% EGR from Phase 3 to current Phase 4 with a PEGY of 0.03, and with Champions League multipliers, it makes him of interest. I think the International break hurt him a little bit and he has perhaps struggled to recapture his form of previous phases, but they have tricky fixtures against the likes of Real Madrid, Atalanta and Borussia Munch over the next 30 days, but it could see their defenders tested, which could be a good, or bad thing for PB. I already own and may take some for IPD's, but not too many until fixtures are more favourable.
REECE JAMES – Chelsea (Premier League)
Chelsea are in better shape at the back, now that they have a decent Goalkeeper and bolstered their defence with Thiago and Chilwell. James seems to be getting some decent gametime at the moment, with the occasional benching but I think he should be a regular. He has 16p in PB through all 4 phases, and his IPD's read 2p, 2p, 0p, 6p with a PEGY of 0.45 between Phase 2 and 4, and I'd expect Chelsea's clean sheets to start to improve and he does also have added attacking threat, so that 6p could be added to, with favourable fixtures over the next month, apart from perhaps Spurs.
ANGELINO – RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
Scored 3 games in a row, with a couple in a Champions League game – amazing what regular first-team football can do for a player's confidence. For me, his stats look excellent, pretty sure he nailed some TOTM Divs too. He has a 0.06 PB PEGY for the last 2 Phases (2p – 8p) and for IPD's he has 0p, 3p, 3p, 16p and with 60 days left he is sure to improve on that 433% EGR last 2 phases for a PEGY of 0.02. They face a perhaps tricky few games against PSG, but they could also get a result there and Angelino looks a solid defensive option as their games are a bit easier in the Bundesliga.
HANS HATEBOER – Atalanta (Serie A)
An Atalanta defensive option, surely not. The Dutch International so far has earned 3p, 5p, 1p and 8p across all 4 phases. His EGR ranges from 38% long-term to 700% over the last 2 phases, with 2 months left giving him a PEGY of 0.08 long-term and 0.01 short-term. Atalanta have not started their Champions League campaign too badly, but a bit hit-and-miss in Serie A so far. They face Inter and Liverpool soon and so it might be waiting till fixtures are a little easier towards the end of the month.
MEHMET ZEKI CELIK – Lille (Ligue 1)
The emerging Turkish International youngster already has a goal in the Europa League and is getting decent gametime. Apart from Milan, they have a relatively easy set of fixtures in Ligue 1 and it wouldn't surprise me to see his name in amongst the IPD returners and perhaps TOTM. His 6p in Phase 4 is a big improvement on his Phase 1 IPD's and he has also won 2p in PB in Phase1. He ranks 14th in terms of highest Top 3 PB scores with 443 and is long-term PEGY of 0.15 can probably be improved upon over the next month.
That's about it, as far as full-backs are considered as we start the month of November.