The final part of this blog post series, focuses on forwards that are good value IPD plays using PEGY Ratio's (Price Earnings Growth Yields). Many of these will also challenge for PB most weeks, whenever fixtures and form are in their favour. Here are the links to the previous blog posts -:
So far, we have compiled a nice shortlist for PB, MB and IPD's for GK, CB, FB, MIDS and now the attention turns towards forwards, which can comprise Centre Forwards, Second Striker/Winger or Attacking Midfielder/Winger
DOMENICO BERARDI – Sassuolo (Serie A)
Doesn't have European football or favourable fixtures over the next month, so timing could be critical for an entry point. He has won 16p in PB Divs across all 4 phases. His IPD's read 9p, 5p,10p,10p – so not much long, or short-term growth, but the medium term 5p up to 10p gives him an EGR of 41% over Phase 2 to 4, giving him a PEGY of 0.11. I have some, but will hang fire till fixtures are more favourable. Ranks 4th best on Second Striker/Winger categories, on Highest 3 PB scores, totalling 537. Averages 89 minutes over 5 games so far, is on penalties and some corners and an Italian International.
MATHEUS CUNHA – Hertha (Bundesliga)
IPD Divs of 1p, 2p, 3p and 8p. Gives him good long-term PEGY of 0.14 with a long-term EGR of 100%, his short term 167% EGR gives him a PEGY of 0.09. He has also played 90 minutes across 6 games. Another with no European football and tricky fixtures after Augsburg with Dortmund and Leverkusen. I'm holding fire for now, but could be a good one with a nice set of fixtures, especially as he appears to be on corners, so grabbing plenty of assists alongside the goal threat.
BAS DOST – Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
Another who doesn't have European football, but they have a fair set of fixtures, and could surprise Leipzig if they are feeling exertions from the Champions League. He is 31yo but still averages 84 minutes per game, an improvement on his average 60 mins last season, but exiting could be tricky so I'm happy to swerve despite winning 3p, 2p, 5p and 8p so far in Phase 4 giving him EGR's of 40% and 0.03 long-term PEGY with a short-term 150% EGR and 0.02 PEGY.
ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI – Bayern (Bundesliga)
Not only does he have PB of 5p, 22p, 40p and 28p with a long term EGR of 78% and PEGY of 0.04. He still has a few months to improve upon that 28p so far this Phase, but for IPD Divs he currently has 23p, 18p, 18p and 26p. So, long term EGR is just 4% with a PEGY of 015, but he does have a recent PEGY of 0.06 with an EGR of 44%. Hard to imagine he won't improve upon that 28p so far. Apart from Dortmund in the Bundesliga and Atletico later in the Champions League, they have a pretty good run of fixtures, 6 in total, with 3 Golds and 3 Silvers, so for me he has to be included.
MIKEL OYARZABAL – Sociedad (La Liga)
Spanish International, on penalties and set pieces and corners. Problem is that he can struggle with gametime. He has won 21p in PB Divs over all 4 phases with a short-term 250% EGR 0.04 PEGY and long-term 0.15 with a 67% EGR. For IPD's he has 23p, 18p, 18p and 26p. So that's pretty amazing, giving him short-term PEGY of 0.06 and 100% EGR and a long-term 0.19 PEGY and 20% EGR. He gets around 61 mins per game but has an average of 86 mins per Europa League game, which they have a few easy ones in over the next month. Looks a good option for TOTM and perhaps some PB and a load of IPD's over the next 29 days.
ANDREJ KRAMARIC – Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
The Croatian International has been on fire in the Bundesliga with 6 goals from 3 games and is on penalties. He has just had Covid, so he may be eased back into action. They do have a few Europa League games and avoid some of the big names in the Bundesliga over the next month, so he could be worth a punt, if it looks like he gets a start this week in their Europa game on Thursday. Looks worth a punt for me and ranks 3rd overall for Centre Forwards on 3 Highest PB scores with 536. He has PB of 16p and 28p in the last 2 phases, so far, giving him a short term EGR of 75% and a PB PEGY of 0.04. On IPD's he has 3p, 6p, 5p and 12p so a long-term EGR of 58% with a PEGY of just 0.08, shorter-term EGR of 140% with a PEGY of 0.04, so looks assured to improve on those figures over the next 30 days.
PEDRO NETO – Wolves (Premier League)
Sadly Wolves don't have European competitions but I do like Neto as a player and think he has a lot of potential. He has won 4p in PB Divs and 1p, 5p, 2p, and 6p in IPD Phases, giving him a long-term EGR% of 82% and a PEGY of 0.12. In the short-term it looks even better with a 200% EGR and 0.05 PEGY. They have some tricky fixtures ahead I think and the Portuguese U-21 International is getting a bit more gametime an an average of 82 minutes. Waiting for more positive fixtures.
MICHAIL ANTONIO – West Ham (Premier League)
Similar to Neto, West Ham don't have any European football, but they have started this season better than most expected, certainly no whipping boys, but much depends on the fitness of Antonio. He has already won 18p in PB Divs and for IPD's he has 1p, 3p, 9p and 6p. So his long-term EGR of 82% is impressive, resulting in a PEGY of 0.03. In fact he ranks 5th overall in Attacking Mids/Wingers for PB Top3 with 331 and was 3rd-ranked last season with 655, so he can get really streaky when fit and well. They face Fulham, Sheff Utd and Villa over the next month. I've read in some places he has a hamstring injury and may be out for a month but the manager only mentioned he would miss the game on the 31st October. So keep an eye on this one for a return.
IAGO ASPAS – Celta Vigo (La Liga)
A 33yo Centre Forward does not appear as an ideal type for IPD's but he has played 90 minutes in each of Celta Vigo's 8 games, with 4 goals so far. His IPD returns read 4p, 7p, 6p and 8p giving a long-term EGR of 26% and PEGY of 0.02 but also a short-term 33% EGR with a PEGY of 0.04. You don't get a lot of sub-50p strikers worth looking at but over the last 4 phases he has returned over half his price in IPD's alone, so could be a cheap punt, if that is your thing, aligned with positive fixtures. They have a few tough fixtures ahead, so I'd maybe wait till they play some bottom tier teams, of which they are one.
HARRY KANE – Tottenham (Premier League)
Tottenham have a couple of, what should be, fairly simple Europa League fixtures and WBA in the Premier League, but they also face Man City and Chelsea over the next month, which could indicate whether they have just had a good run of fixtures, or can step up to the next level. So far, Kane has had 25p in PB Divs, £1.09 in MB Divs and 12p, 7p, 7p and 28p in IPD Divs. Basically, a perfect hybrid right now. His long-term IPD EGR is 33% with a 0.24 PEGY, while his short-term PEGY sits at 0.03 with an EGR of 300% – pretty exceptional stats and with Euro's he will surely be in the headlines a few more times. Looks a good long-term buy but with some decent, and a few tricky, fixtures, he can return some Divs.
JOAO FELIX – Atletico (La Liga)
So far returned 18p in PB Divs but for IPD's he has 4p, 4p, 3p and 12p giving an EGR long-term of 44% with 0.33 PEGY and short-term EGR of 300% with a 0.05 PEGY. They have Barcelona and Bayern sandwiched in amongst a much easier bunch of fixtures and it could see Felix win a PB and challenge for TOTM forward, especially being on penalties. He does have an average of 71 mins gametime across 8 games, but played 90 minutes in their 2 Champions Leagues games so far and that could be where he gets boosts to his points.
MO SALAH – Liverpool (Premier League)
Salah has 7 goals in 7 games and 1 in the Champions League. He is basically on fire and ranks 2nd overall on Top 3 PB Scores with 635. He has won 20p in MB Divs, so is kind of a nice hybrid when on form. He has PB of 3p, 12p, 8p and 16p giving a long-term PEGY of 0.10 with a 75% EGR and a short-term EGR of 100% with a PEGY of 0.08. On penalties and set-pieces, but they do have a tricky set of fixtures, a few against Atalanta and Man City and Leicester, so I'm in two minds about whether to get in now or before Brighton at the end of the month and for the following month. A tricky one, but I'll probably buy some now and before Brighton.
SON HEUNG-MIN – Tottenham (Premier League)
One of my favourite players right now. For PB has 0p, 0p, 2p and 44p, with still a few months to go. That gives him a short term EGR of 2100% and a PEGY of 0.00 – basically excellent value for PB. For IPD's he has 14p, 9p, 5p and 22p which gives a long term EGR of 16% and 0.17 PEGY and a short-term of 340% and 0.02 PEGY. He has also won 8p in Media Divs, perhaps nowhere as close to Kane but for PB/IPD I think offers great value. His combined 640 for his 3 highest PB scores, ranks him as first for Second Striker/Wingers and he can continue his excellent form, despite some challenging fixtures on the horizon, in amongst some easier ones. Also TOTM considerations with 8 goals and 2 assists from 7 games this season.
ROMELU LUKAKU – Inter (Serie A)
Inter do have some challenging fixtures coming up but Lukaku has already shown he is an IPD machine. He has won 24p in PB Divs, although none in Phase 4 yet, but he has returned some IPD's. 10p, 16p, 12p and 14p so far – giving him a long-term PEGY of 0.10 with 12% EGR or shorter-term 17% EGR with a 0.19 PEGY. Can and needs to do a bit better and not sure this set of fixtures are the best for him, but there are 3 Champions League multipliers potentially in there, so if Inter go on a roll and get results against the big teams, he could rack up some more Divs and be in or around TOTM.
WILFRIED ZAHA – Crystal Palace (Premier League)
Not the most obvious choice for IPD's but 2p, 4p, 1p and 12p show a big improvement latelt. A long-term EGR of 82% with 0.09 PEGY and a short-term of 1100% EGR with 0.01 PEGY. They have Leeds, Burnley and Newcastle up next so he could perhaps sneak some more IPD's and maybe even add to his 8p PB Divs in Phase 2 but it's not my sort of play right now, as exiting could be tricky but one to keep an eye on for FPL options.
THOMAS MULLER – Bayern (Bundesliga)
Muller has earned 28p in PB Divs alone in the last 2 phases. Age is always the concern but he does average nearly 80 mins a game at the moment, where he has nailed IPD Divs of 11p, 15p, 10p and 18p giving a long-term EGR of 18% with PEGY of 0.05 and a short-term EGR of 80% with a PEGY of 0.02. I've flagged how good Bayern's fixtures are, with multipliers galore and I can see him adding to both his IPD and PB Div returns in the remainder of Phase 4, so I'll be buying.
JONATHAN BAMBA – Lille (Ligue 1)
Outside of a couple of encounters with Milan in the Europa League, Lille actually have a nice favourable fixture run and Bamba is the guy for me from their squad. He has 9p in PB from the last 2 phases, but his IPD's are 3p, 4p, 1p and 13p so his long-term EGR is 63% with a 0.08 PEGY and his short-term is 1200% EGR with a 0.01 PEGY, that's enough for me to top up.
JARROD BOWEN – West Ham (Premier League)
Another West Ham player in the mix, what's going on. Not quite as appealing as Antonio, when he is fit, but if Antonio is out Bowen could capitalise. Only has 2p in PB Divs through all 4 phases, well he does play for West Ham, but still has IPD's of 0p, 1p, 4p and 6p so far. With their favourable fixtures, he could add to that. A medium term EGR of 145% and short-term of 50% gives him a PEGY of 0.08 and 0.21 respectively and he could improve on that, although obviously the lack of European games limits his upside.
NEAL MAUPAY – Brighton (Premier League)
Always tricky to take a player from a lower-tier team, but Maupay has IPD's of 4p, 6p, 3p and 10p so far, giving a long term EGR of 36% with a PEGY of 0.05 and a short-term EGR of 233% with a PEGY of 0.01. I'd be waiting for their fixtures to calm down a bit.
CALLUM WILSON – Newcastle (Premier League)
IPD's of 5p. 3p, 1p and 14p and on penalties and ranks 11th for Centre Forwards on 3 highest PB's with a combined 423. Has long-term IPD EGR of 41% with a 0.05 PEGY and a short-term of 1300% with a PEGY of 0.00 – throw in that he has earned 9p in Media Divs and he is capable of producing something, although most of that was likely transfer related. Still, Southampton and Palace are not too bad, but they have Chelsea sandwiched in between which could be trickier, so I may wait on that one.
KYLIAN MBAPPE – PSG (Ligue 1)
PB Divs of 0p, 8p, 0p and 4p mean we can't get a PB PEGY for Mbappe, His IPD's are a better gauge, with a 12p, 20p, 1p and 26p. However, he is set to miss the next CL game, so hang fire on entry points. He has a long-term EGR of 30% and a PEGY of 0.45, with a short-term EGR of 2500% and PEGY of 0.01, so definitely one for the IPD plays, with a chance of occassional PB. It's encouraging that he ranks 1st for Centre Forwards, based on Top3 Highest PB Scores combined with 557.
SERGE GNABRY – Bayern (Bundesliga)
Ranks 2nd for 3 Highest PB Scores amongst Attacking Mids/Wingers. He has 5p, 4p, 10p and 8p in PB Divs, giving a long-term EGR of 41% and a PEGY of 0.62, with a short-term EGR of 150% and short-term PEGY of 0.12. For IPD's he has 12p, 15p, 6p and 10p so far, despite missing a few weeks with Covid. He should be sharper soon and improve upon his 75 minutes average gametime, with some players likely to be rested and rotated. For me, he looks an excellent buy as can always land you some PB and IPD's along the way for near-misses.
That completes the series on PEGY players to watch, for PB, MB and IPD's per position. Hope you have enjoyed the posts, happy trading.
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