I will perform PEG Analysis of the French Ligue 1 but no rush on that as their season has been cancelled, prematurely I feel, so that leaves me with the English Premier League, which has been given the green light for June 1st, although I feel there is way too much for them to sort out to make that kind of deadline, and fancy it might be mid-late June, which is fine. We could face a scenario where 4 of the 5 PG Leagues have returned and are playing in June, July, August and perhaps European games coming back – that's my most optimistic view. I think there may well be quite a few cases when games return, of some players perhaps contracting the virus and being out of action for a while, meaning some other squad members could be given a chance over a few games. There might also be a case where players play for less average minutes per games, with fixture congestion possibly a thing. Anyway, whatever happens it will be great to get football back, but let's crack on with the EPL PEG Analysis. Refer to my previous blog post which contains details about PEG analysis, and also view the same analysis for Bundesliga, Serie-A and La Liga.
Remember to always perform your own analysis and that this is just one approach to analyse a players combined Dividend Growth and Capital Appreciation. There are many more ways to value players and in future articles I'll be focusing on younger, promising players, yet to earn Divs but are profiling well with a decent Capital Appreciation already and I'll also be looking at an FM20 Scouting strategy, to look out for really young, promising players, perhaps not even yet in the first team squad. For now, let's crack on with the PEG Analysis on the EPL, again starting with the Top-5 teams in the league, again all prices and figures correct as at 12th May 2020 and stats from 1st August 2019.
It's also worth looking at the run of fixtures teams have, MozzFI on Twitter has done some great research on this across all PB Leagues, with a table of his listed below for the remaining Premier League fixtures. He is well worth a follow.
TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD – 21yo Defender £7.70 – We have to start with Trent, with a 213% EGR and 13p in Divs, he has a PEG of 0.08. Not only that but he has a Media PEG of 0.28, having returned 13p in Divs, giving a combined PEG of 0.06 – clearly one of the best PB/MB Hybrids in the EPL. Just 21, with Euro's assured at right-back for England, likely World Cup the year after, and playing for the team sitting at the top of the league, with Champions League next season. His price may seem expensive to some, but you need to look beyond the raw price and he actually represents great value across the board. He leads the way in a whole host of stats and is ideally suited to the PB Matrix, with 2 goals and 12 assists in the EPL, so looks a solid BUY/HOLD.
FABINHO – 26yo Midfielder £0.85 – Has the highest PB PEG of the shortlisted Liverpool players with an EGR of 50% and PB Divs of just 2p, but he also has an MB PEG of 0.21, having returned 8p in Media Divs, giving a combined PEG of 0.17 which is not too bad. However, he has only started half of Liverpool's games this season and a few of those were down to Jordan Henderson being injured. The stats are not too bad but I'd prefer to see more gametime for the Brazilian, which may not happen, and with those meagre 2p Divs, despite having some Media appeal due to only having a single name, I'll skip him.
GEORGINIO WIJNALDUM – 29yo Midfielder £1.09 – Is one of the older players here, but does have Euro's with Holland and is a regular starter in the squad. Has 3 goals for Liverpool but plays a more forward midfield role for Holland where he has 8 goals in 7 qualifying games, worth remembering next summer. He is 29 though, which limits his upward trajectory but a 152% EGR and 8p in Divs, gives him a 0.09 PEG, so looks a good buy, at least up to, and including the Euro's next summer.
JORDAN HENDERSON – 29yo Midfielder £1.39 – Again, is 29yo but actually has the best PB in the squad, with a 324% EGR, 8p in Divs, giving him a 0.05 PEG. However, he lacks the media appeal of Trent and the development potential, but has 3 goals and 5 assists for Liverpool and played in 6 Euro qualifiers, so looks a rock-solid buy/hold through to Euro's and maybe the World Cup the year after, but beyond that his long-term appeal is a bit limited. I'm not convinced that EGR will be maintained but I doubt it will drop too much. He did miss 4 games with a hamstring injury before football stopped but will likely be fit to return for the end of the campaign.
RIYAD MAHREZ – 29yo Forward £2.14 – The wingers is a standout in this squad from a PEG perspective with a 175% EGR and 24p in Divs, giving him a PEG of just 0.05 – again, we have to factor in a few things here. Man City are likely to be banned from Europe for 2 seasons, but they are still in the Champions League, beating Real Madrid away, getting a useful 2 away goals, which could see them progress in that competition. I think if they are knocked out at some point, there could be a player exodus, which I wrote about in a blog post here, back in February. Now, I didn't include Mahrez in that, but he has been linked with Real Madrid and PSG and I feel a move could be likely, although unlikely while Man City remain in the Champions League, as 2 years without European football, is not going to be appealing to the top players like Mahrez. Looks a decent buy/hold at least for a few seasons as will likely always pick up PB, MB during any transfer spec and has World Cup potential for Algeria in a few years time. Then he will be 31, so I'd be keeping an eye out for any drop in capital appreciation.
KEVIN DE BRUYNE – 28yo Midfielder £4.71 – Has achieve 25p in Divs this season but with an EGR of 74% gives a PEG of 0.25, not bad but not great either. However, has also picked up 4p in Media Divs which could increase with any transfer speculation, and there has already been some, linking the Belgian with Liverpool and Man Utd, but he has also spoken of early retirement, which would be in the back of my mind. However, he has Euro's with Belgium next summer and I'm sure his Divs and EGR may rise a bit based on that and all the other factors, while picking up the odd bit of media.
RODRI – 23yo Midfielder £2.16 – Has picked up 4p in Divs and an EGR of 89% gives him a PEG of just £0.61 – which is not great, partly because I guess he is a more defensive midfielder, with only 3 goals from 26 games for Man City, but he does have Euro's with Spain next summer and is still a young player, so that could change. However, he is not for me right now but I'll keep a watching brief.
BENJAMIN MENDY – 25yo Defender £1.33 – Has struggled with knee injuries in the past, and started less than half of Man City's games at left-back. Played just 1 qualifier for France and may make the squad, but doesn't look a definite starter there with Lucas Hernandez, Ferland Mendy and Lucas Digne all possibly vying for that position. The injury issue does worry me, but if he can get regular gametime and prove free of injury, he has some appeal, having 15p in Divs from limited appearances, but just a 22% EGR, leaving him with a PEG of 0.41. I think I will pass but keep a watching brief.
GABRIEL JESUS – 23yo Forward £3.13 – Struggles for starting places with the likes of Aguero still producing the goods up front, has started just 13 games but played in 24, often coming on as a sub. Has still managed to grab 10 goals and 4 assists during that time, as well as 5 goals in 6 Champions League games and will likely feature in the World Cup for Brazil in a few years. Has been heavily linked with a move to Juventus, and if he does not get regular gametime, or if he decides to move if Man City are banned, looks a good bet for transfer spec and if given a starting berth at a big club, whether Man City of Juventus, could really start to improve on that, already decent PB. Has 15p in Divs with an EGR of 53% giving him a PEG of 0.40, but has also picked up 3p in media divs, looks more of a chance bet, but is young enough and a good enough striker to reward any buys and see an increase in returns.
RAHEEM STERLING – 25yo Forward £5.77 – Looks highly priced given his 3p in Divs and EGR of just 15% means a PEG of 12.98, indicating he is overpriced, but does have 11 goals from 23 starts for Man City, will feature in the Euros where he nabbed 8 goals and 6 assists in 7 games for England and has also some transfer spec potential and has 3p in media divs, but that has dried up of late. I think it's worth keeping an eye on him, especially ahead of the Euro's and if starting to find a bit of form, as he struggled with that before the Covid crisis. Right now though I'm not interested, but will monitor.
JAMES MADDISON – 23yo Midfielder £4.20 – Is not the greatest PEG value from Leicester players at 0.78, with 11p in PB Divs, an EGR of 49%, but is improved on a combined PEG having returned 6p in Media, largely due to previous links with Man Utd, for a Total PEG of 0.51. Is a young player though, with 6 goals and 3 assists from 27 starts, and could get an England spot at the Euro's, and with Champions League likely nex year, although only played 1 qualifying game. For me, the price is just a little high, or rather, there are better value options out there, but is worth keeping an eye on for any increase in Divs or capital appreciation increase over the next few months, which would likely see an improvement in that PEG.
HARVEY BARNES – 22yo Midfielder £2.17 – Has returned 6p in Divs with an EGR of 74% giving him an ‘ok' PEG of 0.49. Has 6 goals and 6 assists from 27 games but not yet made his England debut. Has been a regular for the U-21's though, so I see it as just a matter of time before that happens and bookmakers have slashed his odds of making the Euro 2020 squad after an influx of bets on the youngster. If that doesn't pan out he likely still has Champions League next season and is a young midfielder who looks a bit better value than Maddison at this stage so I'd be willing to take a bit of a small punt, that he will be there, despite competition from Sancho and Rashford in particular, he could still provide coverage, if he picks up where he left off when the season restarts.
WILFRED NDIDI – 23yo Midfielder £1.21 – A defensive midfielder who has 2 goals in 23 appearances for Leicester, the young Nigerian has 5p in Divs with an EGR of 85%, giving a PEG of 0.29. That's pretty good and his price looks fair. He could have some transfer spec, has been linked with Arsenal and Man Utd, but a move seems unlikely as Leicester are in a better position currently, to offer him Champions League next season. Could be a good longer term hold, especially as he is a regular in the Nigerian squad with World Cup potential in a few years, where he should be close to his prime but he is not for me, as there are better PEG options.
BEN CHILWELL – 23yo Defender £2.29 – Another of the young Leicester talent, will likely line up in the Euro's, having made 5 solid appearances during qualifying at left-back. Has been linked with a move to Chelsea but has a big transfer price-tag, so I'm not convinced, but that may not stop the rumour mill. Has 13p in Divs with an EGR of 88%, giving a PEG of 0.20. Again, I'm not so big into defenders but there is potential there at the price for an interest so I'll get involved and monitor, but there is definitely some long-term appeal here.
RICARDO PEREIRA – 26yo Defender £1.54 – PB Divs of 11p with an EGR of 111% gives an excellent PEG of 013. Likely to line up for Portugal at the Euro's, have Champions League if staying at Leicester, where he ranks 1st in the Premier League for Tackles completed. He was their player of the season last year but has been linked with Barcelona, Juventus and PSG. Looks a good option for a bit of alternative Euro defensive exposure.
CAGLAR SOYUNCU – 23yo Defender £1.03 – The Turkish International played in 4 of Turkey's qualifying games. Has been linked with transfers to Arsenal and Man Utd but again, it's unlikely he would move and deprive himself of potential Champions League football next season. Has the best PEG of any of the Leicester players, with 8p in Divs, an EGR of 215%, giving a PEG of 0.06. Turkey have an excellent defensive record, having only conceded an average of 0.3 goals during qualifying and he could have some decent PB potential in that spot, at least during the Group stages. Looks worth a good purchase with age on his side and Leicester having a relatively easy run of fixtures remaining.
WILLIAN – 31yo Forward £1.22 – Getting on in years but has returned 8p in PB Divs with an EGR of 50%, giving a PEG of 0.31, that rised to 0.16 for combined PB/MB, having returned 7p in Media. Has been linked with transfers to Arsenal, and more likely Tottenham, where he could re-unite with Mourinho. Has 5 goals and 5 assists in 28 games for Chelsea but at his age I wouldn't be looking beyond a short-term punt, especially as there are players with more favourable pegs but he looks worth a small PB/MB hybrid punt.
REECE JAMES – 20yo Defender £3.28 – Has 8p in Divs and 190% EGR, giving a respectable PEG of 0.22. That is not quite Trent standards and although representing England at all levels, has not been called up for the first team, with the likes of Kieran Trippier and maybe even Wan-Bissaka in competition, although there could be a chance with Kyle Walker unlikey to play for England again, following his recent exploits. Even if he doesn't make the England line-up, it's likely he could feature in the World Cup but it's a little bit of a gamble for the Euro's and a lot depends on how he plays when/if football restarts again for the last remaining games. A watching brief.
MATEO KOVACIC – 25yo Midfielder £1.21 – The Croatian international maded 5 appearances during qualifying and will likely line up in the centre of midfield for Croatia. One of the most improved players for Chelsea this season, arguably one of their better players this campaign, it's hard to argue with 8p in Divs and a 109% EGR giving a PEG of 0.14. Again, provides good Euro coverage with Croatia and possibly Chelsea in the Champions League next season.
JORGINHO – 28yo Midfielder £1.66 – 13p in PB Divs with an EGR of 94% gives him a PEG of 014. Has a few years on Kovacic and I'd rather the former, but Jorginho did play 9 Euro qualifiers for Italy, nabbing 3 goals and could potentially be a decent shorter-term play for Euro's and possibly World Cup. Has 4 goals and 2 assists for Chelsea this season. However, he could be sold by Chelsea to make way for Declan Rice which may kick up some transfer spec. Again, looks a good option with Chelsea also having a good run of fixtures.
PAUL POGBA – 27yo Midfielder £7.78 – Price looks a little high based on his PB Divs of 2p and EGR of 11%, giving a huge PEG of 35.93, BUT he has been out injured for most of the season, and he is better for MB, having £1.26 in Divs, giving a MB PEG of 0.57. Did score 25p in Divs the previous season and it remains to be seen what happens when football restarts. I would expect, if he starts, and plays well earning Divs, we could see that PEG drop a fair bit, but he still looks particularly overpriced either way, so I'd not be too keen to hold until things settle down, but he remains a good media hold, if not a value one.
MARCUS RASHFORD – 22yo Forward £6.93 – Price looks a bit high, based on 11p in PB Divs, EGR of 107% with a PEG of 0.59, but he has been out injured for a while with a back injury. He has returned 50p in Media Divs, which gives him a MB PEG of 0.13 and combined PEG of 0.11 for a total of 61p in Divs, looks set to feature for England and be fit for the Europa and EPL games for Man Utd, who still have a squeak at Champions League qualification next season and despite what seems a high price, looks worth a buy, although I'd prefer to wait until he actually returns to action before stepping in, to take advantage of IPD's and a sign that he is definitely back and starting.
BRUNO FERNANDES – 25yo Midfielder £9.72 – Again, people think Bruno looks expensive and although some of that 413% EGR is down to all his transfer spec prior and during his move, he has produced the goods on the pitch with 16p in PB Divs during his short-time, giving a PB PEG of 0.15. He also has returned £1.49 in Media Divs, for a MP PEG of 0.02 and a combined Total PEG of 0.01, which is about the best out there. Looks a rock-solid buy for me, should continue to gather PB Divs and MB when he puts in game-winning performances and will be Sancho's heels price-wise when football returns. Also has Euro's with Portugal and young enough to give returns for quite a few years to come.
FRED – 27yo Midfielder £1.66 – A little older than Bruno, also grabbed 2 goals and 4 assists in United's 6 Europa League games and was playing well before the break. Has 0 goals and 0 assists in the EPL though but 17p in PB Divs and an EGR of 197% gives him a PB PEG of 0.05, while his media-friendly name has earned 15p in Media Divs for a MB PEG of 0.06 and combined hybrid PB/MB PEG of 0.03. Not quite the same appeal as Bruno but far cheaper price to pick-up, for those that worry about such things.
ODION IGHALO – 30yo Forward £1.62 – 8p in PB Divs doesn't tell the whole story, and a whopping EGR of 1568% is explained by his move from Shanghai, so the 0.01 PEG is rather false. Having said that, he does have 41p in Media and finished the season strongly BUT his contract is up in the summer and may/may not be extended, it's unlikely United will take up the option to actually purchase him, with a plethora of attacking options with Martial, Greenwood and Rashford likely to return, so it's a real gamble, especially given his age BUT if he does get a loan extension and with squad rotation likelier during the condensed fixture list, he MAY hold SOME short term appeal with plenty of media likely and Man United having a farily easy run of fixtures.
OTHER PLAYERS TO NOTE
JOAO MOUTINHO – 33yo Midfielder Wolves £0.62 – The Portuguese International could be a short-term punt, played 6 Euro qualifiers, is in the Europa League where he has 3 assists, and have a squeak at a Champions League/Europa spot next season, with Wolves currently in 6th place 5 behind 4th-placed Chelsea and 2 behind 5th placed Man Utd. Has 1 goal and 6 assists in the EPL for Wolves with 10p in Divs, an EGR of 55% giving a decent PEG of 0.11 BUT he is one of the oldest players on the list, so there is that doubt about Cap App increasing or even being maintained. However, Wolves have the easiest run of fixtures till the end of the season, so their players could pick up decent PB and IPD's.
PATRICK VAN AANHOLT – 29yo Defender Crystal Palace £0.56 – Only featured in 1 Euro qualifier for Holland, but has 7 clean sheets and 3 goals for Palace from 22 games, giving him PB Divs of 8p, with an EGR of 54% and a PEG of 0.13 but is a little older and Palace are 11th in the EPL, so there is not much else to recommend him, apart from perhaps a cheap price.
JORDAN AYEW – 28yo Forward Crystal Palace £0.41 – Another cheap punt, 4p in Divs with an EGR of 88% results in a respectable 0.12 PEG. 8 goals and 1 assist from 28 games, would only really be of interest to me if there was some easy fixtures for Palace, which it doesn't look like they have.
MATT DOHERTY – 28yo Defender Wolves £0.93 – With Wolves run of fixtures looking pretty easy, as well as still being in the Europa League, although no announcement expected on that from UEFA for a while, Wolves players hold appeal. Doherty is one such defender who has accrued 7p in Divs with an 97% EGR giving a respectable PEG of 0.15. The right-back had a good run of form before football stopped, with a couple of goals and a couple of assists. Republic of Ireland may make the Euro's, although who knows what is happening in the playoffs or when they may complete. He is not the youngest for sure, but there may still be some juice in the orange.
JACK GREALISH – 24yo Midfielder Aston Villa £5.42 – Looks a big price, obviously he picked up MB for all the wrong reasons for breaching Covid Lockdown with 13p in Divs, a 229% EGR giving him a MB PEG of 0.18. On the pitch he has 5p Divs with a PEG of 0.47, so not quite so appealing but with continued transfer rumours linking him to Man Utd, there is perhaps ‘some' potential there with a combined PB/MB PEG of 0.13 but it's a bit of a gamble for a team flirting with relegation and a tough run of fixtures. He is arguably Villa's best player so a transfer of some sorts could materialise, but it's a bit of a gamble at that price and purely based on PB, which could improve though at a bigger squad.
ADAMA – 24yo Forward Wolves £2.97 – 9p in PB Divs with a huge 561% EGR gives him an excellent PEG of 0.06 for the Wolves winger. Again, mentioning all the positives for Wolves, Europa, possibly Top-4/5 EPL position, although Man Utd, Chelsea and Leicester all have relatively easy fixtures also but does have 4 goals and 7 assists in 28 outings for Wolves, 2 goals in Europa and ‘could' be a possible for the Spain squad, although that seems unlikely as he is yet to earn a call up. Not a bad shout though with that PEG, although EGR may struggle to continue at that rate.
DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN – 23yo Forward Everton £2.21 – Has earned 8p in Divs with an EGR of 216% thanks to 13 goals in the Premier League, giving him an excellent PEG of 0.13. Has an outside squeak at Euro's although Kane, Sancho, Rashfor, Sterling and others may be ahead in the pecking order. However, he is priced at 5/2 to make the squad and has done enough IMO to earn a place. It's a punt but even if not, he could still have great long-term potential and continue to earn PB Divs.
DIOGO JOTA – 23yo Forward Wolves £2.47 – Again, another Wolves player but has earned a staggering 24p in Divs with an EGR of 59% which is fairly conservative but I'm sure will pick up. Has had a couple of hat-tricks in the Europa League and could vye for starts with Adama but that PEG of 0.17 is excellent. 6 goals in the Premier League to add to his 6 in Europe and a chance of making the Portugal squad, combined with the ease of fixtures, gives him a lot of appeal.
That concludes the EPL PEG analysis, again I already hold quite a few of these due to earlier analysis for the Deposit bonus but will be looking to top-up when the season looks like restarting, as close as possible to also take advantage of IPD's. If you have any questions, or specific EPL players you want to know about, please post them below. I'll do a Ligue 1 analysis, but will wait to closer to the start of their next season. Hope you have enjoyed this series of articles.