The first Gold day in well over 3 months on Saturday 13th June. So I thought this would be a good time to look at my own portfolio, balancing etc and to make sure I'm well prepared for the end of the season PB/IPD period, as well as being covered for a few new strategies. One involves a DRIP (Dividend ReInvestment Plan) where I intend to top up any Divs one on players in my ‘Youth' watchlist and rebalance the portfolio accordingly. I'm a little overweight in Bundesliga, but took some profits there recently, before the dip and am getting some bargains there through the Matching Engine, as I feel a lot of their players will contend on Gold Days for their remaining 4 games and I'm thinking ahead already to the start of next season. Just before Covid-19 struck, I immediately focused on Media, and preferably Media/PB Hybrid plays, so that I would not have to get rid of a few who only won media when Covid-19 looked like slowing down. With the 5-place media and double-dividends, it was a no-brainer. During the deposit bonus I topped up across all leagues, and then did so again. Basically, when people were jumping into Bundesliga players I was topping up on EPL, La Liga, Serie A, and more recently Ligue 1 holds. Most purchases during this time have been around PEG analysis and more recently, IPD and fixture analysis. I also recently started topping up on some Youth players, some with good XD and PEG, some with decent IPD Yields and have 2 strategies here. One, I'm keeping to myself, the other involves topping up on all players, providing the spread are relatively low, or I can get a bargain – focusing on DRIP (Dividend ReInvestment Plan) where Divs and money is re-invested on players that catch my eye, with a view to compounding interest.
TYPE OF DIVIDENDS
Media Dividends 81.5% (Expect this to decrease quite a bit as fewer media days over the next few months + reduction in holdings on some ‘pure' media plays)
Match Day Dividends 13.4% (Expect this to have the biggest increase over the next few months as I've invested across the board on XD PEG players, value to earn PB Divs)
In-Play Dividends Goal 2.6% (Expect this to gradually increase as I top up on IPD performers with positive fixtures)
In-Play Dividends Assist 2.6% (As above)
The goal here is to have a much better balanced in-flow of different types of Dividends. I think FI will possibly look to either replace or amend IPD's at some point, judged by the survey questions. Their super match day points was seriously confusing and it could be a simplified version of that will be offered. Either way, less reliance on Media Divs will be a good thing with so much football on the horizon. I only experienced a short-period of IPD's before Covid-19 struck and most are around the recent Bundesliga fixtures. I'm happy with all my players, although there are some I want to exit on, when they spike. I have 223 players currently, which is a bit more than I'd like. The goal is to aim for 200 in the short-term and then reducing to 175 and maybe 150, so there is some work to do to get rid of around 20+ players from the port over the next few months.
MY PORTFOLIO VS THE MARKET
February – Market +2.53, My Port +4.92 (+2.39%)
March – Market -4.95, My Port +11.54 (+16.49%)
April – Market +6.11, My Port +12.4 (+6.29%)
May – Market +1.35%, My Port +20% (+18.65%)
June – Market -0.31%, My Port +15.25% (+15.56%)
So far I've been beating the market, last few months in particular have been very good and we are only 13 days into June. The goal here is to continue to beat the market, but also to beat or get close to +20% consistently.
PORTFOLIO BY POSITION
This is a fairly simple graph, ideally I'm looking to cut back on the defenders I have to Full Backs or Wingbacks, as I feel this is where the real growth and potential for profit is. Witness Trent Alexander-Arnold for example, the likes of Theo Hernandez are others. I'll start to reduce some holdings in centre-backs and players who are largely in or past peak-age that I no longer wish to hold. I'll also be looking to cut back a bit on central or defensive midfielders, focusing more on attacking midfielders and wingers, while I'm happy with my forward options balance.
Defender – 15.8%
Midfielder – 59.4%
Forward – 24.8%
PORTFOLIO BY LEAGUE
We have been in a unique situation, where the Bundesliga has been the only league going for over the last month. I deliberately wanted to be a bit overweight in Bundesliga, thinking ahead to the start of next season, where I will plan on reducing and continuing to rebalance across all leagues. I also felt they would have better match-fitness on a number of Gold Days over the next month, we shall see how that pans out. La Liga is my smallest holding, as I feel there is less value there than any other league. I'd look to have a bigger % in Premier League players, as the UK media and platform tends to give more weight to players in the Premier League. I'm happy with the balance across all the leagues but expect the Bundesliga and Premier League figures to be reversed somewhat over the next year. The ‘other' tends to be young players in non-PB leagues that could potentially get a transfer one day or European competition next season.
Bundesliga – 38.9%
Premier League – 25.1%
Seria A – 9.7%
Ligue 1 – 9.9%
La Liga – 7.1%
Other – 9.3%
PORTFOLIO BY AGE
I'd personally like to see a few more categories here. Perhaps Below 20 and then 20-23, then 24-26, 28-30 and 30+
However, I have few players over 30 and plan on reducing my 26-30yo's in favour of some of the younger players. The 21 to 25 I feel is a bit of a sweet spot for players about to hit their prime, or already in it, so that will likely always be where the bulk of the portfolio is.
Below 21 – 18.1%
21 to 25 – 63.3%
26 to 30 – 17.4%
Above 30 – 1.2%
So, pretty happy with that 140 days on the index and an average of £143 profit per day. The goal is to get this figure doubled at least, to re-invest Divs and free up funds gradually on some players, to top up on others. I'll also be introducing a new metric for the start of next season, called PEGY (Price Earnings Growth and Dividend Yield). I've been using an adjusted PEG figure and basing on Expected Dividends, because I have felt Football Index is not quite a mature enough market, but this new calculation will be a gamechanger. It is a good metric for stock analysis, the PEGY ratio differs from the price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio because it takes into consideration the stock's potential for future earnings growth and dividend payments. Again, this will be an amended formula but I think will provide a really useful guide to future purchases, while being able to monitor players that are dropping or perhaps out-of-form. You can read more about it here. I'm really looking forward to the end of this season, the new season ahead and the Euro's next summer. It's the perfect time to review, set a benchmark and then review in another few months time at the end of the season to see if this strategy has been successful.