My last post focused on PB Price Earnings Growth Yields. In this post I focus on Media PEGY. The good thing is that there are Media Divs every day, so the datasets change all the time. The problem with solely looking at a ‘seasonal' MB Div return is that it often contains a lot of ‘one-off' transfer speculation, and there is a definite bias on the Index towards players in the English Premier League and a bias within that towards Manchester United related stories. By splitting the media into 4 phases of time (every 120 days since 9/8/2019 until 1/12/2020) we treduce the influence of transfers and can see trends developing.
This can be used in conjunction with monitoring media per player. You can follow my dedicated Twitter Football Index Media news account, which Tweets out RSS feed news stories from all the outlets, and some across Europe @mediafbi
The Media Monitor has been promised for a long time, and I'll do a separate piece on the potential impact of these changes, with regards to players being picked up for more media stories, using their full name in the first paragraph of the story. It's not the ideal fix, which for me is disappointing, they should really be pattern matching the surname of the player in the headline, WITH the full name in the article story, but it's better than the current measurement of ONLY looking for the player's full name in the title.
We can only work with what we currently have, so I've split the media phases into 4, each consisting of 120 days of media.
Phase 1 (9/8/2019 – 7/12/2019)
Phase 2 (8/12/2019 – 6/4/2020)
Phase 3 (7/4/2020 – 5/8/2020)
Phase 4 (6/8/2020 – 4/12/2020) Still have just over 1 month of media in this phase (as at 30/10/2020)
Let's take a look at some of the key, value players, when it comes to media.
JADON SANCHO – Between Phase 1 (1p) and Phase 4 (84p) he had an earnings growth rate of 338%, giving him a long-term PEGY of 0.07, easily the best on the index. However, he had earned £1.39 alone in Phase 3, when the transfer spec was in full swing and then all of his 84p in Phase 4 occured before the transfer window closed, and he hasn't earned any media since. That's why his PEGY between Phase 2 and Phase 4, is only 2.00 due to an 8% growth rate, and he doesn't even have a PEGY from Phase 3 to Phase 4 due to negative earnings growth rate of -39%. So, he won less money than expected during the transfer window, but it was still a lot of media. However, it goes to show the dry-up on media, when deals don't pan out and when actual football is actually on. A whopping 74% of Jadon Sancho's media comes on non-matchdays. I expect his media to be pretty dry, at least until the run-up to the January transfer window, and when there are no matchdays on, for example during International breaks. So for me, it's a hang fire for the media, but his PB should more than compensate till then so I'd be looking to top-up when the rumours start up again.
LIONEL MESSI – The Goat has 0.22 PEGY between Phase 1 (28p) and Phase 4 (78p) and a 0.30 between Phase 2 (48p) and Phase 4. Through all 4 phases he has returned £1.90, over a £1 less than Sancho, but much of that was due to the craziness that happened when it was rumoured he was likely to leave Barcelona, depending on what you read, and was being linked to Man City. For me, those rumours seem crazy, as Messi has Barca in his blood and his family are settled there, he certainly doesn't need the money and with the president Bartomeu now out, he looks even likelier to stay I think, but he is still Lionel Messi and will be one of the key beneficiaries of the Media Monitor changes. Lionel Messi has 2255 media articles over the last year, from Football Index media sources, where his full name is mentioned in the article. However, just ‘Messi' had 3955. That is over 75% increase in the amount of articles, that could ‘potentially' get picked up by the new media monitor. However, it's just a shame it wasn't in place during that craziness. If he starts to look unsettled, or transfer rumours surface again, let's hope the new media monitor is in place. Until then, he will struggled to match those numbers, outside of big game days, as most of his MB dried up, like Sancho, after the transfer window closed. Monitoring.
MARCUS RASHFORD – Is doing excellent work, and it's not easy going up against the Government. Some say he should focus on football, but that's a cop out and an insult to the essential awareness he is raising across the nation, that others are trying to sweep under the carpet. I've already mentioned in the previous post, and since updated, how his PB is going to be rock-solid and with an MBE under his belt, he is likely to be the perfect Manchester United hybrid going forward. He also had a hat-trick in Europe, and his confidence in front of goal seems to be getting higher. Guaranteed a place in the Euro 2020 squad, he is definitely one to be involved with, even if just from a media perspective alone, the PB will follow and I'd imagine he comes out well for IPD's, which will be on my radar for next week's blog post. For media, he has 15p in Phase1, 34p in Phase2, 27p in Phase 3 and currently 32p in Phase4. His 29% Earnings growth rate results in a PEGY of 0.66. That's a little less value than his PEGY between Phase 1 (15p) and 3 (27p) where his EGR was 34% and he had a PEGY of 0.60, but that is over one less phase, so I prefer the longer-term figure, which is likely to reduce with just over 1 month of media left in Phase 4. Looks a solid buy, as media is not tied to transfer spec and he has the United bias and multiple Divs if he puts in a big performance in high profile games.
NEYMAR – Another player who has consistent media, in Phase 1 (41p), Phase 2 (28p), Phase 3 (16p) and so far in Phase 4 (22p). He is likely out injured for a spell and set to perhaps return when the International break is on. Fortunately, 63% of his media comes on media-only days so he may yet be able to get over that 22p mark with a month to go in Phase 4. The problem is the gradual drop off from Phase 1, to Phase 2 to Phase 4, with Phase 3 being his poorest returning phase. However, he has a 37% EGR in the last 2 phases and has a PEGY of 0.87, so I hope he gets a few more wins before December to lower that figure. He is also one of the ones who will benefit least from the media monitor changes, with his one name advantage being disintegrated overnight, something to bear in mind. However, I think we will see a lot more transfer rumour around Neymar, with Real Madrid and/or Barcelona, which could see this global megastars media rocket.
Others to mention are possibly Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne. Sterling has 3p in Phase 3 and 10p so far in Phase 4, giving him an EGR of 233% and a PEGY of 0.07. Sterling has been a bit out of form and it might require him to start showing a bit of form again if he is to get some more media returns.
KDB has 11p in Divs in Phase 4, the most since his 5p in Phase 2, giving him an EGR of 48% and a PEGY of 0.29 so it will be interesting to see if he attracts any more media. 63% of his comes on matchdays, so watch out if he puts in a game-winning, dominant display, shouldn't have to wait too long. However, the media is not fantastic and he also appears to be struggling for PB in this phase, with niggling injuries and such, something to definitely keep an eye on.
CRISTIANO RONALDO – Another, like Messi, who will benefit from media monitor changes. From FI news sources, he has 1504 articles that mention him by his full name in the article title. However, there are 2734 articles that just mention Ronaldo in the headline. That's an 82% increase in articles being picked up. During Phase 4 he has struggled a bit, and had a few positive Covid tests but I think when he does return to action, he will start picking up media again and is definitely worth considering ahead of Media Monitor. 16p in Phase 1, 30p in Phase 2, 59p in Phase 3 but just 7p in Phase 4, which is a pretty huge dropoff. However, 81% of Ronaldo's media comes on matchdays so when you see him back and perhaps with an easy run of games, take note.
David De Gea may see his media wain, especially if there is more weighting towards positive media, Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Aubameyang are 3 strikers who have picked up media in the past, so watch for them if they start finding their scoring boots with favourable fixtures.
So, there you have it. It's not tocket science but Rashford is clearly the new King of Media, Neymar and Ronaldo the others, particularly the latter once the media monitor is in place. Messi will be another to massively benefit from that, while it's a watching brief right now for all the others ones highlighted in blue text, should they either start hitting form or transfer spec turns up a bit. For me, I think there is a lot to be said just for holding Rashford for media, then dipping into some of the others whenever there is football on (Ronaldo, Messi in particular), or in Sancho's case, when there isn't, or when transfer season approaches.