I've been having a lot of fun lately on FI, taking some profits, putting in some speculative bids on players in unfashionable leagues (err Bundesliga anyone) and topping up on players I identified a few months ago in the EPL and other leagues through PEG and other analysis, many that have had decent rises already. So far, in June, I'm beating the market by just over 12% which I'm really happy about considering I am still holding patiently a lot of Bundesliga players. As you can see from the chart below, courtesy of IndexTrak, this is comparable to previous months, with the exception of the 20% May, largely as a result of huge media dividend returns during that time and Bundesliga Matchday Divs.
PORTFOLIO & STRATEGY SUMMARY
Going forward, I expect the media dividends segment to reduce and shall see many more In-Play and Matchday Divs appear. I'm averaging into IPD's, using fixture analysis, PEG and a few other factors to maximise returns. Rather than jumping in and out of markets, which can be costly commission-wise, I thought I would just let my holds run, even in the Bundesliga, while taking some cream off the top to invest in other players. This is refected by a bigger slice of EPL players being added to the port and a scattering of Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1 players. I'm still overweight in Bundesliga but that is because I've not taken much profit there as I think plenty of the players there are capable of winning on big days over the next month, something which a lot of traders didn't take into account, while remaining unworried by drops in capital appreciation, as they will be one of the first leagues back for next season and I'm saving on some commission costs by simply being patient. I'm also going shopping for a few more forwards to re-address the imbalance in the midfielder area as goals and assists rule.
The process of trading involves losses.
One of the keys to being successful is learning to go through losing phases with strategy. This could mean:
1. Staying the course
2. Trading less
3. Reducing your trade size as you have losing trades
4. Staying on the sidelines
COMPARING TRENDY POSITIONAL PLAYERS
I've been using Football Index Edge new 1v1 comparison tool to look at a number of ‘favourable' positions in teams that have had decent rises of late. The Top-20 risers over the last 2 weeks have all been in these kind of positions and all aged 23 or under. With that in mind, I thought I would do a mini-tournament, by position, using the comparison tool – using the 2 metrics, performance score and Benscore. I thought I would start comparing the oldest players and work my way down the age ladder till I arrived at a few standouts. I deliberately avoided the Bundesliga as it has 4 games remaining. I believe this group of guys, summarised at the bottom, can give you an excellent banf for your buck, in terms of regular investment to take advantage of both PB and IPD Divs. You can get a FREE trial here to Football Index Edge.
PERFORMANCE SCORE FULL BACKS
WINNER – TRENT
BENSCORE FULL BACKS
WINNER – REGUILON
Both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Sergio Reguilon come up on top of each matchup with Ricardo Pereira getting an honourable mention.
This is what the top-2 look like paired against each other.
PERFORMANCE SCORE ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS/WINGERS
BENSCORE ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS/WINGERS
WINNER – MARTIN ODEGAARD
Both Fernandes and Odegaard come out best here but an honourable mention has to go to Cyprien. Oliver Torres, Fred and Melou also of note.
PERFORMANCE SCORE CENTRE FORWARDS
WINNER – MBAPPE
BENSCORE CENTRE FORWARDS
WINNER – RODRYGO
So Mbappe and Rodrygo go head to head, Mbappe wins on performance, Rodrygo on Benscore. Both are excellent holds. Honourable mention to Jordan Ayew at Crystal Palace, didn't see that one coming but , he could be interesting! Gerard Moreno, Gabriel Jesus and Musa Barrow also deserve a 2nd look.
PERFORMANCE SCORE SECOND STRIKER/WINGER
WINNER – NEYMAR
BENSCORE SECOND STRIKER/WINGER
WINNER – BERARDI
Berardi actually beats Neymar on Benscore but Neymar trashes all before him on performance. Honourable mention to Depay who also beat Neymar on Benscore before losing to the dominant Berardi.
Let's have a complete look at all the players who performed well in the comparison mini-tournament. Obviously there is a little more risk, the wider the pread, but perhaps a chance to pick up some guys at discount at the bottom end of the price-range.
Ayew has an excellent IPD Yield of 31% so I'll be looking for an easy run of fixtures for Crystal Palace. Some are longer term than others, some will get a decent boost during the EPL when it starts. Fred is particularly interesting for me from both a PB and MB perspective, only question is gametime but with lots of substitutes and rotations likely, he looks well placed to take advantage while Bruno obviously ticks all boxes. Berardi is a player I definitely one to be with, and Moreno also from an IPD perspective on easier fixtures.
It's probably a good idea for cap app to get those guys under 23 who can hit some decent scores like Barrow, Reguilon, Rodrygo, Jesus, Odegaard and Trent for a decent coverage across leagues and positions.
Who do you think is missing from the above list that could do well till the end of the season?