I'm going to keep ‘relatively' quiet about the last few months on Football Index. Having taken profits since I noticed a few technical signs of a ‘top' I managed to take out £15k of Football Index, mostly profits, and re-invested that in a new property. Shares in FI players are ‘intangible' assets, but it's important to have a ‘tangible' asset, like property, which I see more as a solid, long-term investment with less risk, especially with stamp duty axed for a while – there is definite value in there. I've also played in a short-term tech ISA, managed to make a few hundred from that, while making some decent profits spread-betting. Diversification doesn't mean just spreading your money across the different gambling products out there, but also in more traditional investments. On Saturday I noticed some key bottoms and reversal signals, especially on benchmark players like Jadon Sancho, Bruno Fernandes and Joshua Kimmich. A lot of ‘weak' money, for want of a better word, has exited the platform, evidenced by the ease of which it was possible to recycle players for IPD's and get Bids matched immediately at the bottom of the bid zones. That opportunity has gone now, but there is still plenty of value across the index, but don't make the mistake of measuring prices at where they are in relation to ‘peak' prices, which were inflated before. It's important to value players on exactly where they are right now, and not use price highs as a measurement of value or try to figure out career dividends, it's nigh to impossible. Also, improved liquidity starts with improved trader sentiment and we have seen a resurgence of positivity on the Twitter timeline and an increase in number of active traders. Read this thread on Twitter to understand more about how Technical analysis can help with this, using the excellent free resource @indexalerts
Price Earnings Growth Yield
Anyway, let's get on with some analysis for the Europa and Champions League, based on the new PEGY page I've put up. Hopefully, it will help some people understand a little more, or use another method of valuing players. On the PEGY page you can sort by all the column headings, age, team, PEGY, Yields, Price etc etc – use these filters to find players or start with the teams and then focus on the players. Remember a PEGY of close to 0 is ideal, but there is a BIG difference between a 22yo with a PEGY of 0 and a 35yo with a PEGY of 0. Also, consider the actual Divs payments themselves, some may have great looking Yields and PEGY's but have returned only 5p in Divs over the 4 phases. Sometimes, it's better to look at players with higher PEGY's that have returned more Dinaro.
My first approach is to look at all the tables, starting with the Champions League, focusing on those teams in with a chance of qualifying, or at least if they don't, they have a chance of slipping into the Europa League. Added value is an important consideration and you can't underestimate the impact of a x1.25 PB multiplier, especially when it comes to Team Of The Month (TOTM) for the more consistent performers. Also, these tend to be decent teams that are prominant in their respective PB leagues, although not always. People may disagree with this list, for example you ‘could' include players for Shakhtar, Porto, Ajax etc, but it comes with higher risk, unless you like a player within those teams for a transfer to a PB League. Other quality teams are underperforming, but could turn things around, or at least sneak into the Europa League, Inter Milan in Group B, PSG in Group H for example. Anyway, here are the teams I'm focusing on. Now, I'm going to look at players I like, but, as always, do your own research and use a resource like TeamFeed to check for updated injuries and suspensions. Fixture strength can also be useful, although, as we have seen this year there have been some unexpected results so I'd prefer to look at number of fixtures, specifically on Gold Days so you can have the potential to pick up greater Div returns.
GROUP A – BAYERN & ATLETICO
These are short-term PEGY's for IPD, so basically from Phase3 to Phase4. So, a few things to look at here. First of all, be sure to get a player who has a decent AvgMins2021 – which shows the average number of minutes a player has this season, there are a few tech issues I need to iron out in this though, so take them with a little pinch of salt for now. For example, JOAO FELIX has 76 mins, compared to Joshua Zirkzee's 13 minutes. He also has a higher IPD Yield of 4.81% and has won almost x5 more IPD's over the last 4 phases than Zirkzee. Also, consider the balance between PEGY, EGR% (Earnings Growth Rate, Yields and Minutes). For example CORENTIN TOLISSO looks a decent option in that respect, especially with Kimmich out for a while. Now, I know they are two different types of midfielder and it's not a straight swap, but he will likely get a bit more gametime.
Now, let's look at long-term PEGY's for IPD's for these two teams. We can see that JOAO FELIX is not ‘quite' as good value over the long-term for IPD's as he is over the short-term, but for IPD's we don't really care ‘too' much about that. However, it's always worth considering as it can show consistency and value of a player to regularly return IPD's month on month. We can see that CORENTIN TOLISSO‘s long-term PEGY is pretty solid though at 0.11 with still a decent 100% EGR over the 4 phases.
OK, so now let's look at Short Term PB for these two teams.
Well, obviously no Kimmich but here we see the benefit of looking at different types of Divs across timeframe. JOAO FELIX appears on the Short-Term PB with a 260% EGR and a PEGY of 0.03, having won 46p in Divs over the last 2 Phases. THOMAS MULLER looks OK, but his EGR is pretty flat and at 31, it's got a fair amout of risk associated with him, especially as he doesn't apear in IPD lists. Similar for Boateng, who has fewer gametime minutes.
Now, let's look at the Long Term PB for these two teams.
Here we can see once again the strength of JOSHUA KIMMICH, sadly he may be out for a while longer. ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI has excellet EGR, a solid Yield and a low PEGY. His avg gametime is down, but he still has close to 81 minutes. He is 32, that has to be factored in with decision. SERGE GNABRY has a ‘fair' long-term PEGY and he will surely start producing the goods soon. However, despite having a lower average gametime, KINGSLEY COMAN looks a potentially better value option with a much higher EGR and Yield and a PEGY similar to Kimmich. It ‘may' take an injury for one of his team-mates for him to start seeing regular gametime, but for me, that ‘should' happen at some point, with a lot of fixtures, he could be given more gametime and has youth on his side, as he approaches close to peak age for a forward.
For the rest of the teams, I'll just focus on short-term IPD's and short-term or long-term PB, whichever is the most informative. Everyone else can view the other reports on the PEGY page.
GROUP B – BORUSSIA MUNCH & REAL MADRID
Short-term IPD's for these two teams.
The standout here is MATTHIAS GINTER with a huge EGR, Yield, 0 PEGY and 90 Avg Gametime Mins. From a midfielder perspective FLORIAN NEUHAUS also jumps out for all the same reasons. He has less Avg Gametime minutes but is just 23 and his other stats look solid. Those looking for a goalkeeper could do worse than YANN SOMMER, although his EGR in the short-term is pretty flat, suggesting a lack of cap app. Nobody really jumps out for Real Madrid, where Zidane seems a bit extreme with his rotation and gametime, FEDERICO VALVERDE was interesting but has a muscle injury but keep an eye on injury updates.
KARIM BENZEMA showed up for short-term PB but may be out, Ramos for long-term PB is also out with a hamstring. If Benzema is fit I'd be interested for IPD's as he has strength across the board, just the age factor, but less of an issue for short-term IPD's.
GROUP C – MAN CITY
Short-Term IPD for Man City.
Nothing really too exciting here. Small samples of data. I'd say, ‘possibly' EDERSON as a goalkeeper option, who has a low PEGY, 90 mins, EGR is not fantastic but Yields look good. RODRI looks good with his Avg Mins and low PEGY, but his total Divs are only 9p over all 4 phases – again, important to look at the totals. Nobody shows up for short or long-term PB.
GROUP D – LIVERPOOL & ATALANTA
Liverpool have been rocked by a lot of injuries, but doesn't seem to be impacting them too negatively. Robertson looks good but EGR is not that great. DIOGO JOTA has a lower Yield, and lower average minutes, but he has shown he can produce the goods in Europe and has a much better PEGY. ALISSON looks a good keeper option, he does have some EGR, Yield, gametime and a low PEGY. FABINHO seems to be a beneficiary of the latest injury crisis and could be a good option with his positive stats.
These are short-term PB's – both ALEJANDRO GOMEZ and Salah are also on the long-term list, Salah out for a week or so with Covid. For these, I like the look of ANDREW ROBERTSON for short-term.
GROUP E – CHELSEA & SEVILLA
So, a couple of interesting ones here on the Short-Term IPD's. BEN CHILWELL stands out across the board here. MASON MOUNT doesn't quite have the gametime, but his overall figures look good. The only other I like is IVAN RAKITIC, but he is 32 so it would definitely be more of a short-term play. All the others lack the gametime with plenty of rotation impacting Sevilla players it seems.
The above is long-term PB. Jesus Navas has a low EGR, simply due to his age but he does have a decent PEGY and minutes, so ‘could' be a short-term punt, but that spread! However, BEN CHILWELL again shows up really well here and is an excellent IPD and long-term PB hybrid.
GROUP F – DORTMUND & LAZIO
For short-term IPD's, it's clear there is some value here. RAPHAEL GUERREIRO has a decent EGR and Yield and 0.10 PEGY with 71 Average Minutes. However, there are a few better defensive options out there, that may not have the risk of a position change, again something else to factor in. MANUEL AKANJI has an amazing EGR and Yield and a 0 PEGY with 90 minutes, looks a no-brainer and just 25yo. AXEL WITSEL looks good, but is 31 but overall his other stats look pretty solid for a potential short-term trade. There are not really any from Lazio that stand out.
Only one player shows up for short-term and long-term PB and it's the King of the Index JADON SANCHO. He is actually showing up much stronger for short-term PB rather than longer-term PB. However, it's worth pointing out how long his Yield is, and the higher up his price goes, the lower that Yield, so he needs to keep producing PB Divs. Fortunately, he also has likely MB potential but I'd like to see him get more average gametime.
GROUP G – BARCELONA & JUVENTUS
The only one here that I like is DANILO for Juventus with high average gametime, EGR, Yields and low PEG. He is 29 but it's clear he is standout here. JORDI ALBA could be another option but Barcelona are struggling quite a bit right now.
Both LIONEL MESSI and CRISTIANO RONALDO are the only two that appear on both short-term and long-term PB. I think Messi may miss this week's game – I also think there is a lot going on at Barcelona that gives ‘some' risk but he does have media appeal as well. I'd be hanging fire this week but Ronaldo is different class. His average minutes are down a bit, but there is no arguing with his Divs, Yields and EGR, at least in the short-term but he is 35, and although he is a beast, we have to monitor that situation.
GROUP H – MAN UTD & RB LEIPZIG
ANGELINO is the one that looks good for me, young, decent enough PEGY, high average gametime mins, but the Yield is pretty low. AARON WAN-BISSAKA looks good at United, again decent PEGY, Yield, young, good gametime. PETER GULACSI at RB looks good from a Goalkeeper perspective. Decent Yield, low PEGY and consistent Divs.
In terms of PB, 2 guys standout. BRUNO FERNANDES has been crushing PB Divs for quite some time and winning media again. His PEGY, EGR and Yields are solid, would like to see a little more gametime but fixture schedules play their part. However, the presence of ANGELINO again, with his PEGY, higher Average Minutes and strong EGR, has to go in there.
Finally, just a word on PSG as I know a lot of traders love Mbappe and Neymar.
KYLIAN MBAPPE has a good short-term IPD EGR, but is actually not so great for the long-term, his figures are down over the last 2 phases. Also, he doesn't appear on PB either, so would be a swerve for me. NEYMAR is in a fairly similar boat IPD-wide, but he has missed a few games with Covid and bans BUT he crushes PB as we can see below, so is actually a far better hybrid. Of course, there are 7 years difference!
So, here we can see confirmation that NEYMAR has an excellent long-term PB PEGY with £1.13 in Divs and a near 16% long-term PB YIeld with a nice 46% EGR. MARQUINHOS is one to mention, as we can see he has an excellent short-term IPD EGR of 150% but also backs that up with a decent PB Yield.
All this data is available on the PEGY page, as with everything, use it in conjunction with your own methods, whether it's PB scores, or any other form of analysis and do your own research. Any questions, give me a shout below in the comments or on Twitter @fbitrader