There is a meeting between Merkel and the heads of states in Germany, with an announcement due any time now (6th May), with optimisim surrounding a restart of the Bundesliga from May 15th or May 22nd. It's not 100% yet but there are a lot of grounds for optimisim and positive messages coming out. I thought it might be interesting to look at those PB players, since August 2019, focusing on PEG ratios, but also looking at any Star players over the last few seasons that may be worth noting, and players with a similar profile to them that could potentially be interesting. You can read more about my Star Player Analysis here and more about Media/PEG ratios here.
First off, I usually need at least 2 reasons to purchase a player, it gives me a little more comfort knowing that they have at least a few things in their favour, rather than relying on one stat or strategy that may not pan out. One of the first things I look at is to filter by clubs that are either already in a Champions League or Europa League qualifying spot, or have the potential to get there, if they are within a few points.
For this exercise, that means focusing on 9 teams, and I'll pick out players from them, if there are any qualifying players, that I think could be worth a second look.
Bayern are still in the Champions League, but it remains to be seen what is happening with that competition, with no announcement from UEFA yet, although there have been rumours that the competition may continue into the month of August with finals scheduled for the end of that month, but nothing concrete yet.
ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI 31yo Forward £2.34 – Returned to training in April after being out with a shinbone injury. Since August 2019, has an EGR% (Earnings Groth Rate) of 168% and a PB Yield of 11.5%, giving him an impressive PEG of 0.05. He is outside of my Max player age, and will be another year older when the Euro's start in July 2021, where Poland have a tricky group containing Spain and Sweden. He did net 6 goals in 10 qualifiers and is of the similar ilk to Messi and Ronaldo with regards to defying age, with 11 goals in 6 Champions League games and 25 goals in 23 games in the Bundesliga, he is truly a phenomenal talent. Sadly, he has no MB appeal but he could represent a decent buy in the short-medium term, probably has a good few seasons in him, at least until the Euro's next year, or the end of the Champions League campaign, as I still believe Bayern will win the whole thing.
PHILIPPE COUTINHO 27yo Midfielder £3.34 – One of the few German players, Sancho apart, who has been crushing media lately with numerous transfer links, resulting in a Media PEG of 0.17 and a PB PEG of 0.14. He has an EGR% of 105% but is not always a regular starter for Bayern, and his loan deal expires in June. It's a little bit of a chance to take, from a PB perspective, but he is an ideal PB/MB combo player, having returned 19p in media and 23p in PB Divs, despite not always getting regular game-time. There is a lot of uncertainty around him, but I believe Barcelona will have to sell, even at a reduced price, given their financial situation, and he is too good a player to NOT sign for a top-club at some point, regardless of where that is, he would likely be a more regular starter and get a chance to shine. He is not the youngest for sure but I believe he still has plenty of Dividend potential both on and off the pitch to keep returning some profit. He did have minor ankle surgery at the end of April to remove some bone fragments, but is likely to be recovered in time for the restart, but do bear that in mind.
IVAN PERISIC 31yo Midfielder £0.75 – Same age as Lewandowski but does not have quite the same appeal as the legendary striker. The Croatian midfielder did net 3 goals in 8 Euro qualifying games for his country, and they are in the Group along with England and Czech Republic, so there is some appeal there. Inter have stated that they could loan him for another year to Bayern, but I've also read rumours that Conte could give him another chance at Inter, although with the arrival of Eriksson, that is complex as to where he might fit in. Since August 2019 he has an EGR of 31%, returned 8p in Divs, giving him a PEG Of 0.30, which is not fantastic but not too bad either, although I prefer a 3-figure EGR% and PEG at least under 0.20. His price is off his peak but there is not too much room for growth and he has not played regularly since early February for Bayern. With so much competition for spaces, he holds little appeal for me, apart from a purely speculative viewpoint.
SERGE GNABRY 24yo Forward £4.76 – Has continued his upward price movement and now sits at an incredible 309% EGR. He has had a position change, although, personally I'm not sure that benefits him or not going forward. I try not to worry too much about those things as they can change back as easily as they did. He has returned 9p in PB Divs since August and 2p in Media, not great, but not terrible. He does have age on his side though, scored 8 goals in 7 Euro qualifiers for Germany and looks sure to be a vital part of that squad next summer. He also has 6 goals in 6 Champions League games and 11 from 23 in the Bundesliga so will continue to nab goals and challenge for Match-Day Divs. I'd probably be looking to top-up as close to games resuming as possible, to take advantage of any in-play Divs but PEGS of 0.79 for Media and 0.18 for PB are excellent and may improve, if he starts getting good PB's as a ‘forward'. From Bundesliga forwards, he ranks 2nd for PB Avg, 1st for PB Max with 386 (won him Star Player), 2nd for Assists/G, 1st for Tackles/G, 1st for PB200+/G with 8 in total, 2nd for CrnWn/G, 1st for BigChCR%/G at 58.6% and 2nd for card-rate at just 2.9% with 2 cards in the last 2 seasons.
BENJAMIN PAVARD 24yo Defender £1.88 – Has 158% EGR since August, returning 8p in Divs, giving him a PB PEG of 0.15, but doesn't really have many standout stats that I can see, but fairly consistent across the board. Has been starting at right-back and is a regular in the French National squad, but has next to nothing in terms of media appeal or transfer rumours so I'm happy to swerve but the PEG looks strong, if you are looking for a quality defender at a top club.
JOSHUA KIMMICH 25yo Midfielder £4.02 – Has a 45% EGR since August 2019, with 28p in Divs, mostly as a Defender I believe, resulting in a 0.32 PEG. I think the switch to Midfielder could be to his benefit as I've seen a lot of Midfielders attract more Star Awards since the PB Matrix change, compared to 2018. Has Champions League and Euro's with Germany but is not young, yet not old either, and is one of those who could be approaching his peak. The EGR is a little too low for me but I'll wait to see how he performs as a MID before deciding to step in I think.
THIAGO ALCANTARA 29yo Midfielder £2.64 – A relatively low EGR of 29%, his price has been pretty static and he is in the older group of players, so not really on my watchlist. Has returned 16p in Divs, a PEG Of 0.56, doesn't have much Euro appeal, despite having played 3 games in qualifying for Spain.
KINGSLEY COMAN 23yo Forward £2.42 – Is a regular for the French national squad, where he has 3 goals from 6 qualifying games and can play on the left or right wing. Has not really cemented his place in the Bayern lineup, but does have 2 goals from 6 Champions League games but only 2 goals from 15 in the Bundesliga and with the likes of Gnabry, Lewandowski etc will likely always struggle up against these two in the Forward category, especially after the Gnabry switch. Has been linked with a move to Barcelona but really needs more regular playing time. PB Divs of 6p and an EGR of 87% gives him a 0.46 PEG which is ok but not fantastic.
ACHRAF HAKIMI 21yo Midfielder £2.77 – Has returned 11p in Divs since August 2019, like a lot of players in Germany, has scant media appeal despite links to Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. Does have an EGR of 192% which is really good, giving him an excellent PEG of 0.13. His loan period from Real Madrid is set to end in June, but that may be extended I guess. Has youth on his side, has 4 goals in 8 Champions League appearances but only 3 from 25 Bundesliga appearances but is one of the best right-backs in the Bundesliga, and has been clocked as the fastest at 22.5mph with more room for upward price movement. He is a favourite of Zidane, is actually best friends with Zidane's son and I half-expect a return to Real Madrid where he could shine, if he doesn't get a big-money transfer. I really like the Moroccan international's appeal and his stats look solid.
ERLING BRAUT HAALAND 19yo Forward £7.44 – Has returned 20p in Media Divs, although a lot of that were linked to his transfer and he is held back a little by his name not being the most media friendly, although apparently there has been a ‘fix' applied to both capture his full name and Erling Haaland. Has returns 4p in PB Divs, despite clocking 16 goals in 14 Bundesliga appearances and 10 in 8 Champions League appearances, but Dortmund have been knocked out of that competition by PSG. Norway have yet to qualify for the Euro's but he is likely to feature heavily if they do, so there is some appeal there but his price looks high enough for me. Does have an enormous 749% EGR, which surely cannot be maintained and owes a lot to his transfer and initial goals he grabbed. A MB PEG of 0.05 is likely to slip a little but a 0.25 PB PEG is good, although again, largely down to an inflated EGR%. He is not for me, looks a little too high but I can see the appeal he holds to some, given he is so young and looks a bit of a freak, in the nicest possible way.
RAPHAEL GUERREIRO 26yo Midfielder £1.52 – Likely to have Euro's with Portugal and has 5 goals in 20 Bundesliga appearances. Has an EGR of 117% with a PB PEG of 0.32 which is ok but not spectacular. His goals and assists have dried up since the start of the year, perhaps due to him playing a more defensive role and it remains to be seen if he can recapture that level of form.
JADON SANCHO 19yo Midfielder £13.53 – Have read so many Tweets about Sancho being overpriced, fact remains that he is the most talked about youth player around right now, returning a huge 91p in Dividends, combined with a 201% EGR, giving him an excellent MB PEG of 0.07. His PB does not look quite as good with 11p in Divs, and a 0.61 PEG. However, his media appeal and EGR is likely to continue for quite some time, although if he doesn't start getting some more PB Div returns, or a big-money transfer (which has to be a doubt given Covid expense worries at a lot of clubs), could see his price dip a little bit. However, does have Euro's with England and will likely garner tons of press – which is why I consider him a must Media hold for the medium-long term, with a chance of PB improvement as he develops as a player.
TIMO WERNER 24yo Forward £6.04 – Has 4 goals from 8 Champions League games, will feature at the Euro's in the summer for Germany, although they are in a tough group with France and Portugal so far. However, has set the Bundesliga alight with 23 goals in domestic competitions. Has won Star Player 3 times over the last few seasons. Ranks 4th among Bundesliga forwards over the last few seasons for PB Avg, 2nd for PB Max at 373, 3rd for goals/G, Assists/G, Pass/G and PB200+ with 6 of them as well as being 2nd for Shots/G, SOT/G and 1st for CrnWn/G. Not only does he have PB Appeal with 27p in Divs since August 2019, resulting in an excellent 0.07 PB PEG, but with numerous transfer rumours has returned 15p in Divs for a MB PEG of 0.12. That's an average of 0.04 Total PEG, which is about the best in the Bundesliga and will continue to rise in price for the foreseable future, with RB still in Champions League this season, and likely next season, and with Euro appeal. I kind of hope the likes of him and Sancho DON'T get big moves until after, or around the Euro's, as I'm greedy and want continued MB Divs on the rumours, but if he does get a big move, it can only see his price keep going up, already has a 339% EGR, with Divs returned both on and off the pitch.
MARCEL SABITZER 26yo Midfielder £2.44 – 2 goals in 9 Euro qualifiers for Austria, 4 goals in 7 Champions League games, 11 goals in 28 domestic competitions, it's easy to see why Sabitzer has a very low 0.04 PEG with an EGR of 555% and returning 10p in DIVS. That EGR may not be sustainable, but I can't see his price dipping anytime soon if his excellent form continues. Has been linked with moves to Arsenal and Tottenham, which may see him get more media buzz but it's his on-pitch performances that make him appealing, anything else is a bonus.
CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU 22yo Midfielder £3.27 – Doesn't quite have the scoring profile of Sabitzer, or the experience, but it's a classic case of his higher price being due to being 4 years younger. Also has not had as much media as Sabitzer, although that could change over time if he gets some transfer spec. He has returned 8p in Divs with an EGR of 433% (up another 2% yesterday) giving him a PEG of 0.09.
PETER GULASCI 30yo Goalkeeper £0.40 – Only concedes a goal per game, is one of the few goalkeepers who have returned Divs (6p) and with an EGR of 24% is probably one of the better goalkeepers, if you want to add one to your port. Personally, I'd wait to see if goalkeepers get their own category, I believe they should, because otherwise they have little EGR and PB potential being grouped with Defenders but he is a cheaper option. He is 30, but age is less relevant for goalkeepers, who can often play up to 40+.
DAYOT UPAMECANO – 21yo Defender £2.09 – Has been linked with many big clubs and looks one of the hottest Centre backs in the game right now. His contract expires next year and he ‘may' still have an outside squeak for the French National squad, despite not playing any qualifying games. Has returned 4p in Divs, has an EGR of 149%, giving him a good, but not spectacular 0.35 PEG. It's been rumoured that he will sign a new contract with RB, especially as they are still in the Champions League both this season and likely next, so a move may not happen for a little while yet. Central defenders are not really my bag in FI but he does have the potential to be a good longer term investment.
MARCEL HALSTENBERG – 28yo Defender £1.29 – A versatile defender who says he feels comfortable in the centre but mainly has operated as a left-back, both for RB and on a handful of appearances for Germany, where he could sneak into the Euro squad next season. Has returned 11p in Divs since August 2019 with an EGR of 58% and a PEG of 0.2 which is solid. However, is one of those ‘age bias' players I feel that people start to become less interested in when they hit 27/28, yet that is defined as a prime age for a footballer so he looks a fair value bet if you are looking for a German defender to add to your port.
MATTHIAS GINTER – 26yo Defender £0.72 – Won the German player of the year award in 2019, is a staple at the heart of the German national squad defence and has been linked with transfers to the likes of Tottenham. His low price probably is a combination of his age and playing for a less trendy team in the Bundesliga, despite them lying 4th currently and in with a shout of Champions League next season, and definitely, at least Europa League action. He could be a good, cheap defensive option, at least until the end of next season as is likely to be in his prime and may get a transfer to a bigger club. 4p in Divs but only a 33% EGR means a PEG of 0.55, which is a bit high for my liking but he is a fairly decent sub £1 defensive option, if that is what you are looking for.
ALASSANE PLEA – 27yo Forward £1.54 – 8 goals in 22 Bundesliga performances, again price is held back a bit due to age but he has returned 8p in Divs with an EGR of 143% giving him a nice 0.13 PEG. Has been linked with moves to Man Utd (who hasn't!) and Leicester and could be a speculative punt in that respect. Even if not, he holds some appeal if remaining at Monch, for reasons mentioned previously for Ginter and could be a cheaper striker to pickup.
DENIS ZAKARIA – 23yo Midfielder £1.41 – Would me my prefered purchase from this squad, with transfer links to Liverpool and Man United. HAs returned 5p in Divs with an EGR of 346%, giving him the best PEG amongst this squad at just 0.08. Whether that EGR can be maintained is always the big question, but the defensive midfielder also has Euro's with Austria next year and it's hard not to see him attract the attention of a bigger club during that tournament, as well as the chances of European football if he stays at Munch and more PB point potential. A good value play.
OZAN KABAK – 20yo Defender £1.18 – Schalke are vying for a Europa spot next season with an outside chance of Champions League qualifying. The best defensive option is the Turkish International Ozan Kabak who has returned 4p in PB Divs with an EGR of 64%, resulting in a 0.46 PEG – not bad, but not great. However, he could have Euro's next season and has youth on his side. Again though, he is a central defender which are not really my bag.
AMINE HARIT – 22yo Midfielder £1.59 – One of 2 decent Schalke young midfielders, the Moroccan has 5p in Divs with an EGR of 266% giving him a PEG of 0.12, which is excellent. Has 6 goals and 4 assists from 24 Bundesliga appearances and is likely to feature for the Moroccan side in the World Cup in a few years, so very much a long-term hold. Has been linked with moves to Barcelona and Liverpool and if either of those were to transpire, could see his price jump. A speculative long-term play.
SUAT SERDAR – 23yo Midfielder £1.46 – Not had such regular playing time as Harit, but did miss a few games with an ankle injury but has make a couple of appearances for Germany in Euro qualifying and has 6 goals from 18 Bundesliga appearances. Has been linked with moves to the Premiership and again a speculative play.
MAXIMILIAN ARNOLD 25yo Midfielder £1.13 – Again, another cheap option from a less popular club but has returned 12p in Divs with a 115% EGR and a 0.08 PEG. That is rock solid, statistically speaking, and again could be a good value PB play although unlikely to get Euro's and Wolfsburg need to produce something special in the remaining games to get into Europe, 1pt off a Europa League place.
ROBERT SKOV – 23yo Midfielder £2.06 – Skov has 3 goals in 3 Euro qualifiers for Denmark, who are in a group with Belgium, Russia and Finland. He has raked up 8p in Divs with an EGR of 122% and a PB PEG of 0.21 and the winger has some consistent stats across the board. Think he was switched recently from a defender to a midfielder, which I think is a boost and I expect to see him return more divs, has youth on his side, Euro's and they are just 2pts off a Europa League spot.
OTHERS OF NOTE
Outside of the big clubs, there are some players worth a positive mention from a PEG and Star Player ‘profile' perspective.
FILIP KOSTIC – 27yo Midfielder £2.42 – 16p in Divs with a 202% EGR gives Kostic an excellent PEG of 0.07. He plays for Frankfurt which may seem limiting, but doesn't appear to have stopped him so far. No Euro's for Serbia so there is some limitation here and he is also not the youngest but it's likely he will get a move away from Frankfurt and has been linked with Crystal Palace, but I could see a bigger club coming in for him.
PHILIPP MAX – 26yo Defender £1.22 – Has been linked with Barcelona and Liverpool in the past, more recently West Ham but he has returned 14p in Divs with an EGR of 148% and PEG of 0.06 which is the best of this bunch here If looking for a value left-back option, he certainly fits the bill and he could get a move away from lowly Augsburg.
WOUT WEGHORST – 27yo Forward £1.14 – Did play in the Netherlands qualifying but unlikely to make the full squad next summer, although has an outside squeak of a recall. Does have 11 goals in 24 games for Wolfsburg with 16p in Divs, a 51% EGR and 0.14 PEG so definitely a value forward option worth looking into, despite the rising age.
ALPHONSO DAVIES – 19yo Defender £4.37 – Ranks 2nd for Assists/G with 19.4%, 1st for Successful Dribbles/G at 2.77, 4th for Tackles/G at 2.06, 2nd for Goals Conceded/G at 64.5%, 5th for Recovery/G at 6.48 and 3rd for Tackles/G at 138.7%. He also only has 2 cards over the last few seasons and has a PB average of 113.61. I'm not sure those stats justify his £4.22 price mark, but he is only 19 and if starting to earn some PB, would be interesting with a 374% EGR since August 2019.
If anyone has any feedback on the above or wants to know the PEG or my opinion of any other players in the Bundesliga, please leave a comment below.