It's been an interesting week watching traders liquidate positions across the board, to re-invest in ‘premium' holds at the top-end of the market, like Sancho, Trent, Mbappe, Rashford etc. There have also been positive moves for players like Greenwood, Zaniolo, Dybala, Hernandez, Chilwell, Almada etc, indicating traders are getting smarter, for the most part, and investing in younger guys with potential, playing for top-flight teams.
ZOOM OUT OF THE SHORT TERM TREND
Traders jumping on these risers at the Buy Price for FOMO and no other reason, might be better to put in some bids when those big moves get a slight correction, which has been happening for a few big risers lately, rather than jumping on at the high end of a price move. It's also worth considering the commission on your sells to fund those positions, and maybe considering reducing a holding, rather than full liquidation, as you may find yourself buying back into players where nothing has changed, apart from ‘where the money is going right now'.
Even the biggest and best traders can start making short-term decisions, over-trade, especially if some of their players lower down the price scale are not getting love, or there league has fallen out of short-term favour. Remember though, all leagues will return and some of those bargains will rise again and continue to win PB dividends, providing the player fundamentals have not changed. There are some great long-term opportunities if you can stick to your own strategy, and get some bids matched on quality players who have slipped down a bit lately.
Again, it shows the benefit of diversifying across all PB leagues, then you are less worried with these short-term cyclical trends, as you know what goes around comes around and patience is better than over-trading to try to catch the next cycle. The only difference is the preference for EPL players in the UK media when EPL is on which has to be factored into decision and weightings within an overall portfolio structure.
It's also maybe worth taking advantage of the 3pm cutoff time for games, if any of the players mentioned below get some early points or goals, you may be able to pick up a bid at a discount if they don't win Divs today, as the market may over-react. Also, when players get injured, pick up a knock or red-carded there can be a big drop, enabling you to pick up bargains. However, remember a bargain is only a bargain if someone wants to buy off you in the future and they can earn Dividends and cap app in the meantime. This will become trickier after July when commission kicks in and traders should be already thinking if they can get a 4% return on a bid player and 2% for market buys, bearing in mind 2% Comms on bids and 2% on sale post-July, best to get used to those calculations sooner before commission kicks in. Risk reward ratio needs to be right, while considering age, position, fixtures and overall sentiment towards the player.
A bargain may not appear the bargain they seem to be if these factors are not considered, as continued drops may happen before the start of the next season. It's usually a good idea to have at least 2 reasons why you want to buy a player, none of these should be FOMO or reactionary, but planned and assessed accordingly – at least that is how I do it, helps avoid/minimise mistakes and ensures you stick to your own strategy, building discipline along the way. Also, zoom out to examine the player's price chart to 1/3/6 and 12 months to get a view of the overall player trend and key price support and resistance levels.
Sat 14:30 RB Leipzig v Paderborn
I'm not sure what happens in these situations when a big player like Werner (0.065 xPEG) has a transfer confirmed, I've no experience of this? Does he get limited gametime, to ensure he doesn't risk getting injured or is it business as usual? Either way, I think if he plays then he can run riot against bottom Paderborn, who took 6 past them from Dortmund, without Haaland. Of course they had Sancho to step in with a hat-trick, positional change at some point? Either way, RB have enough quality throughout the squad to go to town here, and it's conceivable their players ‘could' get a clean sweep here today. It could be dangerous to assume that Werner plays a full 90-minutes though and I think has to be factored in for looking for Top forward, I could be wrong though and hope he has a good game. This team is stacked with value players but two standout Marcel Sabitzer and Christopher Nkunku. Sabitzer is one of the best midfielders on the index, playing in his prime for that position. From a price earnings growth perspective, he has an XD PB Yield of 6.4% and an XPEG of 0.032. Nkunku has a 0.057 xPEG, so there is very little between them from a value perspective, with Nkunku a few years off his prime and probably a better investment for a longer term hold. Defence is pretty congested too with the likes of Mukiele (0.135), Klostermann (0.139) and Halstenberg (0.145) all excellent value at their prices. Again, Halstenberg is the older of this trio, and we always have to consider age preferability on the index towards youth. With that in mind I think both Mukiele (0.135) and Klostermann (0.139) are interesting contenders for top-defender today. The other young players they have in Laimer (0.163), Angelino (0.281) and Upamecano (0.459) show that Leipzig are a squad that believes in playing quality youngsters and I'm sure Werner won't be the last big transfer we see from them in the future, and also worth noting younger guys in the squad, perhaps about to break through.
Sat 14:30 Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Looks like a cracker of a game here. Havertz has been getting a fair bit of media, in fact it could be argued he is a good buy for media alone with a 0.328 Media PEG, compared to a 0.98 xPEG. An interesting point is he gets 84% of his media wins on matchdays, indicating that when he catches the eye on the pitch, the papers have been writing about him. That's probably not sustainable when all leagues return, although transfer spec may continue to put him in the frame for media divs. However, I feel right now, his price of £6.72 is about right. Paulinho (0.258) is interesting in midfield, but this is against Bayern, Bender (0.213) was the other in defence, although Bayern have been on fire so I wouldn't want any of these guys and they are 31.
With Bayern Munich, it's a case of ‘take your pick' – Lewandowski (0.059) and Muller (0.087) are two of the best forwards on the index, let alone the Bundesliga. The fact they are so good, is a reason why their earnings growth rate has held up so well. Muller has been unlucky with his PB's but neither are going to improve at 30+, although I'm sure they can continue to produce the goods. Gnabry (0.125) has fallen out of favour with traders lately, but is just 24 and will benefit in the future, when either, or both the stalwarts decline from their extended peak. Benjamin Pavard (0.077) has been excellent of late and is amongst the best value full backs on the index, approaching his peak age for the position. Alphonso Davies (0.232) also is excellent for the future but I'd be with Pavard all day at the moment. Kimmich (0.307) is also one of the best defensive midfielders on the index, and a lot has already been written about him. The fact he is just hitting his peak age, for me signifies continued improvement and consistent scores. Bayern should have too many guns for Leverkusen.
Sat 14:30 Frankfurt v Mainz
The only player from Mainz that catches my eye here is Robin Quaison (0.112) – has actually been quite unlucky, according to Indexgain's xDiv report, having only won 2p in Divs, but xDiv suggests 9p. He could be worth a look and is actually up there with some of the best value strikers on the index, in his prime. However, he plays for Mainz, which needs to be factored in to any future decisions. Frankfurt have Almamy Toure (0.233) a full back who is worth keeping an eye on and of course Filip Kostic (0.116), who won another 4p in Divs last week and continues to offer good value. He actually puts in very good PB scores when facing teams below them in the table.
Some people wondered why Kostic's price didn't move upwards after that. Well, for starters people are already thinking ahead and shifting some focus away from Bundesliga and secondly, people are not prioritising Dividend returners. Ideally you want to be able to capture the regular dividend returners + capital appreciation but the key point here is that Dividends are money into your cash balance to be re-invested or cashes, capital appreciation returns are not actual profits until they are banked, and timing of exit can become crucial to ensure you fully benefit from optimal returns. Taking profits is a good strategy, providing it's not done too regularly, and it's to fund into a player that you believe has better mid-long term profitability. It's worth, I think, putting in some cheeky bids on long-term Div returners in the hope they dip at some point, and you get matched at discount. I've been doing this regularly the last week or so and picked up some decent bargains.
Sat 14:30 Fortuna v Hoffenheim
Apart from Giesselmann (0.443), nobody really appeals and they may be on a downer after a 5-0 defeat at Bayern last week. Hoffenheim have won their last 2 games and have a couple of players of interest. Skov (0.146) is basically a midfielder/winger categorised as a defender on FI and I'd imagine a position change could be imminent, which has to factor into future decisions. Not that it will impact on his Divs but there may be an inevitable drop in capital appreciation if it's announced as people panic-sell. He has actually been unlucky with 8p in Divs but 14p in xDivs. From the games I've seen him in, he needs to make more of his finishing opportunities but there could be a clean sheet bonus for him here added to his attacking threat. Much was made of this loss from Kimmich when he switched but it may be less of an impact on Skov, who already has more of a significant goal threat and is just 23. However, also worth bearing in mind he plays for Hoffenheim. Hubner (0.072) is 30 now, but is a good option at Centre Back, he could possibly contend for top defender but he may see a drop in cap app.
Sat 17:30 Dortmund v Hertha
Dortmund face a tricky one against a Hertha side that is in form with 3 wins and a draw since the restart and 11 goals in those 4 games. Boyata (0.166) may not be quite as enticing for top defender as Darida (0.037) may have more success in the midfield. However, the Dortmund side should prove too strong. Haaland will be missing again, which only benefits Jadon Sancho (0.291) more. It's worth mentioning that just 17% of his media has come on matchdays 23p from £1.31, but with the Bundesliga the only league on, we can mark up that figure. Whether it's enough to beat Werner today, who is already on over 500+ media pts before 10am, depends on the level of the performance he puts in, or doesn't today. Zagadou (0.139) I believe is still out so it could fall to Hakimi (0.088) and Guerrerio (0.088) to put in some good displays but all eyes will be on Sancho. If he doesn't put in a good display, or has limited gametime, there could be some cheeky bids possible, although the spread is pretty narrow right now at 1%.
Sun 12:30 Bremen v Wolfsburg
Only one player here for me and it's Maximilian Arnold (0.136) for Wolfsburg in the midfield. Wolfsburg have been a bit hit and miss with 2 wins and 2 draws, while Bremen have done well with a win over Frieburg and Schalke, a draw with Borussia Munch but heavy defeats at Leverkusen and Frankfurt. Wolfsburg should hold too many guns and Arnold is the player best-positioned to benefit.
Sun 14:30 Union Berlin v Schalke
Two teams that have been in poor form since the restart, not one on my watchlist. I haven't seen much of Sebastien Andersson (0.056) but I do know he has one of the lowest PEGS of all forwards on the index and could nail top forward on Sunday. Now, don't confuse ‘good player' with ‘good peg', it's just a measure of price earnings growth and dividends returned. Never underestimate the power of Dividends, he has earned 16p in Divs (25% Yield) and is playing in his prime age, so he could do well here against struggling Schalke, who are missing Serdar in midfield and Harit. Gregoritsch just isn't producing the goods so I can see Berlin winning here.
Sun 17:00 Augsburg v Cologne
Anothe two teams that are struggling to find their form. Augsburg did win against Schale but have losses to Wolfsburg, Hertha and a poor draw to Paderhorn so far. Phillip Max (0.052) as full back for Augsburg has not really been producing the goods but he remains a full back that is of interest if firing and today could be the day. Cologne has been defeated by RB and Hoffenheim and manage draws against Mainz and Fortuna, their defence in particular has been leaky. Only really Mark Uth (0.179) makes some appeal here for Cologne but I think Augsburg win here.
Hope you enjoyed that summary and it's given you ideas and helped with some strategies and analysis that I use. Often I'll have quite conflicting opinions with the crowd and overall concensus. A few people have suggested it's my lack of football knowledge holding me back, despite the fact I've beaten the market fairly significantly since joining 4 months ago. It's actually just that I'm a contrarian thinker and prefer to look beyond the obvious biases and assumptions that most people have while trusting in my own analysis and interpretation of the data and the markets. The football knowledge will come over time, but I feel that neutrality with regards to personal, often biased opinion, over players or teams, whether I hold or not, is actually an advantage when it comes to unique angles and proftability, while always having a risk-diverse portfolio with plenty of coverage and having the longer term in mind, while minimising commision costs. Always have the strength of your own convictions, consider and respect other people's opinions, but at the end of the day, do your own thing and do your own research – it will benefit you massively in the long run.